Copyright (c) 2008 University of Nebraska - Lincoln All rights reserved. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews Recent documents in Drought Network News (1994-2001) en-us Sat, 06 Sep 2008 04:19:20 PDT 3600 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/109 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/109 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 06:54:34 PDT In China, about 50% of the country is in arid and semiarid regions. Drought is the most severe climate disaster to affect China, and it causes significant reductions in grain yields. The area affected annually by drought has been estimated at about 20 million ha, which accounts for 59% of the total area affected by disasters. When severe droughts occur, they can affect as much as 33 million ha. To monitor the occurrence and development of droughts efficiently and provide information on the strength and range of droughts and floods, the China Drought-Flood Climate Monitoring System was developed by the National Climate Center (NCC) in June 1995. The system can monitor the occurrence and development of droughts and floods and analyze disasters comprehensively. Since July 1996, directors of the China Meteorological Administration have been able to obtain information on national drought/ flood occurrence on a daily basis through a computer network using the system. The system provides a scientific basis for the government to take measures to prevent drought/flood disasters and safeguard lives and property. The system is also used to study and forecast drought/flood climate. Zhu Changhan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/108 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/108 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 06:50:23 PDT Drought risk is a major concern across many regions of Argentina because precipitation is extremely variable. One of these regions, the Pampas, is the main agricultural and livestock production area, extending over 60 million hectares. This region was recently surveyed to detect, monitor, and assess the occurrence of drought using a network of 27 meteorological stations and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), developed by McKee et al. (1993). The SPI has various categories that define drought intensities. A period is considered humid when the SPI value is greater than +1 and a period is considered dry when the value of the SPI is less than -1. The persistence of the extreme values was also analyzed temporally and spatially. During the second half of 1999, the region most affected by drought was the agriculturally productive northeastern region of Argentina (Figure 1). The start of the normal rainy season was delayed for several months, further aggravating the problem and causing crop damage and production losses. This drought was due to the cumulative effect of inadequate rainfall during the 1999-2000 growing season. Several provinces in Argentina experienced the severe drought, with Entre Rios (Concordia and Gualeguychu), Buenos Aires (Junin, Nueve de Julio, and Bolivar), Sante Fe (Rosario and Ceres), and Córdoba (Villa María de Río Seco) being the most affected during January 2000 (Figure 1). Roberto Zanvettor http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/107 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/107 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 06:50:21 PDT Beijing, located in northeast China, has a semiarid monsoon climate, with summer rainfall providing about 70% of the annual precipitation. This climate is conducive to crop growth, although insufficient summer rainfall in 1992-93 caused reductions in crop yields. Normalized departures of monthly precipitation (DR/R%) are shown in Figure 1. Although some months show above-normal precipitation (for example, November 1992, with a rainfall amount [43.3 mm] 7.5 times the normal), rainfall for the 1993 growing period was marked by negative departures from normal. Of the months of the 1993 growing season, only July recorded above-normal rainfall. Precipitation departures in May, September, and October 1993 were greater than 50%; as a result, summer corn did not germinate in some mountain areas, and it was difficult to seed winter wheat. Corn and wheat yields, in turn, were reduced. Zhuang Xie http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/106 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/106 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 06:43:35 PDT Contents: What is the Western Drought Coordination Council (WDCC)? What does the WDCC hope to accomplish? What prompted the formation of the Council? Preparedness and Mitigation Monitoring, Assessment, and Prediction Response Communications To Whom does the WDCC report? How do I get in touch with the Council? Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/105 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/105 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 06:38:53 PDT We had a fairly good response to the call in the previous issue of Drought Network News for readers to receive future issues online. I would encourage more of you to consider this option, as it will save distribution costs and expedite receipt of the newsletter. If you are willing to receive the newsletter electronically, please contact Kim Klemsz (kklemsz2@unl.edu). Our plan is to notify you via e-mail when each new issue of Drought Network News is available. Back issues of Drought Network News are also available online. At this writing, I am making final preparations for the Expert Group Meeting on Early Warning Systems for Drought Preparedness and Drought Management. This meeting, hosted by the Institute of Meteorology, will be held in Lisbon, Portugal, in early September. Co-sponsors of the meeting are the World Meteorological Organization, Secretariat of the U.N. Convention to Combat Desertification, and UNDP's Office to Combat Desertification and Drought. The purpose of the meeting is to assess the status of drought early warning systems and determine future needs to better contribute to the increasing demand for drought mitigation and planning efforts. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/104 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/104 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 06:35:19 PDT Effective drought early warning systems are an integral part of efforts worldwide to improve drought preparedness. Timely and reliable data and information must be the cornerstone of effective drought policies and plans. In pursuit of the goal of improving the effectiveness of drought early warning systems, participants of the experts meeting were asked to address three fundamental questions: 1. What is your assessment of the current status of drought early warning systems? 2. What are the shortcomings, limitations, and needs for drought early warning systems? 3. How can drought early warning systems be improved to better support drought preparedness and mitigation efforts at the local, national, and international level? Participants identified the primary users of data and information derived from drought early warning systems as a first step in evaluating the status of early warning systems. Users were diverse, including government agencies, farmers, extension services, insurance companies, media, donors, NGOs, and the general public. Leadership for drought early warning systems is provided principally by meteorological or agricultural services. In general, where meteorological services were the lead agency, the information tended to be more meteorologically based. In contrast, leadership for drought early warning systems that were more agriculturally based tended to take a more multidisciplinary or integrated approach to monitoring. An integrated approach is considered preferable because information from all elements of the hydrologic system must be considered to obtain a comprehensive assessment of climate and water supply conditions. Although forecasting and monitoring are considered critical components of all early warning systems, there appeared to be little evidence of the beneficial use of that information by farmers. It was noted that few countries currently have a national drought policy in place. Australia is an exception and progress in South Africa and the United States was noted. It was apparent that other countries were moving in the direction of a national drought policy. In some instances, subnational policies were in existence. Comprehensive early warning systems should be the foundation on which national drought policies and plans are constructed. Although many countries have some type of drought early warning system in place, these systems are not comprehensive and have very limited financial and human resource inputs. Donald Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/103 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/103 Thu, 04 Sep 2008 06:31:19 PDT I hope that those of our readers with Internet access will consider receiving future issues of Drought Network News online. We realize that some of you do not have access to the Internet, so we will continue to publish hard copies of the newsletter. If you are willing to receive the newsletter electronically, please contact Kim Klemsz as soon as possible. Our plan is to notify readers via email when each new issue of Drought Network News is available. Back issues of the newsletter are also available online. This is a joint winter/spring issue of Drought Network News. It contains considerable discussion about drought indices and a description of a new product, the Drought Monitor, that is available on the World Wide Web. This new product is the result of a partnership formed in spring 1999 between the Joint Agricultural Weather Facility of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska. The Drought Monitor integrates climate information and information from a variety of indices to determine drought severity across the United States. This product is updated weekly and has been well received by technical specialists, policy makers, the media, and commercial groups. I encourage readers to visit the Drought Monitor website (http://enso.unl.edu/monitor/) to learn more about this activity and to consider how this approach might be modeled for other countries or regions. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/102 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/102 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:04:43 PDT With increased understanding of El Niño and La Niña events and growing awareness of the wide range of potential impacts, as well as the increased reliability of seasonal climate forecasts for some regions of the world, there is growing interest in the use of climate information to help reduce risk for some weather-sensitive industries, especially agriculture. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) is currently involved in a project sponsored by the UNDP Office to Combat Desertification and Drought (UNSO) and the World Meteorological Organization, with additional support from NOAA and USAID. The next phase of this project will be a workshop, Coping with Drought in Sub-Saharan Africa: Best Use of Climate Information, that will be held near Harare, Zimbabwe, October 4-6, 1999. This workshop will bring together local, regional, and international experts to discuss the use of both contemporary and indigenous climate information by farmers in Africa. The objectives of the workshop are to (1) define elements of a program that will address gaps that exist between climate information products provided by meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological services and the ability of farmers to access and use this information in support of decision making; (2) demonstrate how climate information can be incorporated in farm-level decisions to reduce the impacts of drought and other climatic extremes on agriculture and maximize productivity during more favorable growing conditions; and (3) develop a strategy to implement pilot studies in selected countries in sub-Saharan Africa that will demonstrate the value of climate information in decision making at the farm level and enhance the drought knowledge of farmers. Farmer surveys on the use and sources of climate information have been conducted in six sub-Saharan African countries: Kenya, Ethiopia, Mali, Senegal, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. The workshop will serve as a forum to bring together potential partners for the next phase of the project. I will try to include a summary of this workshop and its findings in the next issue of this newsletter. If you would like to obtain more information on the project, contact the National Drought Mitigation Center or the UNDP/UNSO web site (http://www.undp.org/seed/unso/tables.htm). Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/101 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/101 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:00:57 PDT Many of the readers of Drought Network News are familiar with the "hydro-illogical cycle" cartoon that I use frequently in presentations and publications. This illustration has been translated into many languages and serves as a constant reminder of the crisis management mentality often displayed in responding to drought emergencies and the proverbial "window of opportunity" following a drought when planning for the next event is of high priority. I hear comments routinely from government officials that recognize the need to plan, but they express hesitancy in moving forward now if water supply conditions are normal or above. The concern is that actions to plan for drought might be viewed by political opponents or the public as misdirected. Politicians certainly do not want to be viewed as placing emphasis and expending resources on what may appear to be an issue that lacks urgency when other crises exist. As drought planners, perhaps we should pray for dry conditions so that proper attention will be given to this important component of water resources planning. After experiencing droughts in 1996 and 1998, the Southwest and southern Great Plains states are bracing for another dry year in 1999. The long-lead forecasts of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center place considerable confidence in a very dry 3-month period from March through May in this region. Much concern exists in Texas, New Mexico, and Arizona about the potential threat of another year of drought. Texas and New Mexico have made considerable progress in drought planning since 1996, and these plans are likely to be tested severely if drought recurs this year. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/100 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/100 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 14:00:54 PDT In the October issue of Drought Network News, I briefly discussed two policy initiatives that developed in response to the severe and widespread drought that affected the Southwest and southern Great Plains states in the United States during 1996. The first of these activities, a multistate workshop (and its subsequent report), was coordinated by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. This report was submitted to President Clinton in late August; it contained a series of recommendations that focused on short- and long-term issues. The second initiative, under the leadership of the Western Governors' Association (WGA), was not available in final form as we went to press with the last issue of the newsletter. This report is now available and is summarized below. In June 1996, the WGA adopted a resolution, sponsored by Governor Johnson of New Mexico: "The western governors believe that a comprehensive, integrated response to drought emergencies is critical . . .[and that] it is important to work together and cooperatively with other affected entities to plan for and implement measures that will provide relief from the current drought and prepare for future drought emergencies." From this resolution, a WGA drought task force was created and charged with (1) coordinating the drought response needs of the states by immediately identifying barriers to effective response at the federal level; (2) working with existing state, federal, and private entities to develop criteria for assessing various stages of drought and corresponding emergency response measures and mutual assistance; and (3) sharing solutions and relief measures that can be implemented within the states and localities in the West. Beginning with a meeting of the Drought Task Force in September, four working groups (drought management, agriculture, water resources, and wildfire and forest health) began working on a report that was to be presented at the November 1996 meeting of the 19 western governors. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/99 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/99 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:56:51 PDT The NDMC hosted the first annual "Drought Monitor Forum" in November. Most of the readers of Drought Network News are probably aware of the Drought Monitor web site (http://enso.unl.edu/ monitor/index.html) and the products that are provided to users. (Mark Svoboda of the NDMC provided an overview of the Drought Monitor product in the Winter/Spring 2000 issue of Drought Network News.) This weekly product, jointly produced by the NDMC, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, has been widely accepted in the United States, and other countries are considering the adoption of a similar technique for mapping drought occurrence and classifying severity levels. The web site receives about 30,000 hits a week and is published widely in newspapers across the country. It has also been adopted by The Weather Channel. A diverse set of users and technical specialists came together to review the product's successes and failures during its first year. We also discussed some of the more technical aspects of product development such as nomenclature and the use or modification of climate indices for incorporation in a blended index. Expect to see changes in the product, some subtle and some more dramatic, in the months ahead. We also expect NOAA's National Climatic Data Center to join us as a new partner in this activity in the spring of 2001. The Drought Monitor was highlighted in the report of the National Drought Policy Commission (NDPC) to Congress and the President in May 2000, and the NDPC recommended continued and expanded support for this partnership effort. (The NDPC report can be found at http://www.fsa.usda.gov/drought/finalreport/accesstoreports.htm.) Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/98 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/98 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:56:49 PDT I recently participated in an advanced course, "Management Strategies to Mitigate Drought in the Mediterranean: Monitoring, Risk Analysis, and Contingency Planning", in Rabat, Morocco (May 21- 26). The course was organized by the Mediterranean Agronomic Institute of Zaragoza (CIHEAM- IAMZ) and the Institut Agronomique et Veterinaire Hassan II in Rabat, Morocco, with contribution from the European Commission. The National Drought Mitigation Center's Mark Svoboda also participated. Other lecturers included M. Wassif (Desert Research Center, Cairo); Eddy dePauw (ICARDA); Ana Iglesias (Universidad Politecnica, Madrid, and Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University); Karl Monnik (Institute for Soil, Climate and Water/ARC, South Africa); Manuel Menendez (CEDEX, Madrid, Spain); José Guerrero Ginel (Universidad de Córdoba, Córboda, Spain); and Tayeb Ameziane, Omar Kerkat, and Mohammed Doukkali from IAVII, Rabat, Morocco. About 30 persons from 11 countries within the region participated in the course. The goal of the course was to provide participants with methodologies and technical tools to develop and implement comprehensive drought preparedness plans. The format for the course was a series of lectures and a series of practicals focused on climatic indices and GIS techniques. The specific objectives of the course were included in the Fall 2000 issue (Volume 12, No. 3) of Drought Network News. I hope to include a more detailed summary of the course in a subsequent issue of this newsletter. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/97 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/97 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:52:36 PDT On July 16, 1998, President Clinton signed the National Drought Policy Act into law. This law creates the National Drought Policy Commission (NDPC), which will examine current laws and programs and make recommendations to the president and Congress on the needs for a national drought policy. The Farm Service Agency of the U.S. Department of Agriculture will serve as the chair for the Commission, which will comprise 16 members. In addition to the Secretary of Agriculture, other members of the Commission will include the Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of the Army, Secretary of Commerce, Director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, two governors nominated by the National Governors' Association, and two persons nominated by the National Association of Counties and the United States Conference of Mayors. The Commission will also include six persons (nominated by the Secretary of Agriculture, in coordination with the Secretary of the Interior and Secretary of the Army) representing groups acutely affected by drought emergencies, such as the agricultural production community, the credit community, rural and urban water associations, Native Americans, and fishing and environmental interests. Numerous groups are currently requesting representation on the Commission. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/96 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/96 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:52:35 PDT The 1997-98 El Niño event has certainly raised the public's level of awareness of the impact of climate on society. Although the concern in the United States has focused more on mitigating the potential effects of floods, not all regions of the country are dealing with water surplus situations. An emerging drought in Montana and parts of some surrounding states has caught the attention of scientists and policy makers in recent months. Worldwide, droughts in Central America, Mexico, Brazil, Hawaii, some Pacific island nations, Indonesia, Australia, southern Africa, and elsewhere have attracted the attention of scientists, policy makers, and the media. Now, as El Niño has lessened in intensity, the threat of La Niña is upon us. Concerns are increasing that the drought in Mexico and parts of the southern United States may intensify and spread into surrounding states in the Southwest. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) is currently working with the U.S./Mexico International Boundary Water Commission and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation to organize an August training workshop on drought contingency planning to address shortand long-term issues of drought in the border states region. This workshop will be similar to regional workshops the NDMC organized in 1997-98. Since the last issue of Drought Network News, the NDMC has conducted workshops in South Carolina for the Southeast region and in Kentucky for the Midwest and Northeast regions. In additional to the usual mix of participants from local, state, and federal agencies attending these workshops, we have also had representatives from Taiwan, Mexico, Hungary, Korea, and Australia as participants. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/95 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/95 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:48:37 PDT If it seems like considerable time has elapsed since you received the last issue of Drought Network News, it is not just your imagination. After much discussion, we decided not to publish the newsletter in October 1997. First, we had a limited number of submissions to include. Second, the task of editing the manuscript for a new drought book was an overwhelming task that was involving much of my time and that of my publications specialist, Deborah Wood. She is also responsible for Drought Network News. With more submissions and the near completion of the drought book, I am pleased to be publishing this issue of the newsletter. The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) organized and conducted two training workshops on drought contingency planning in 1997. These workshops were very successful, with more than 200 participants representing a diverse background of tribal, local, state, federal, and regional organizations and agencies. Three more workshops are planned for this spring. An article about the workshops is included in this issue (p. 3). The National Drought Policy Act continues to be discussed in the U.S. Congress. The Senate version of the bill (S222) passed last November. An identical version of the bill was introduced in the House of Representatives (HR3035) in November. I testified in support of the bill at a hearing in late January. Although some minor modifications may be made in the bill, it is expected to pass the House. This bill would establish a commission to review existing drought programs at the federal, state, and local level and make recommendations to the Congress and the president on the elements of a national drought policy. The commission would have 18 months to complete its task. The NDMC will work closely with the commission. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/94 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/94 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:48:36 PDT Drought policy continues to be a topic of much discussion in the United States. On June 12, the Western Drought Coordination Council (WDCC) met for the first time and adopted a work plan for 1997-98. The WDCC is committed to improving drought management in the western states through mitigation and preparedness. It is hoped that this Council, representing a partnership between federal, state, local, and tribal government, will serve as a model for other drought-prone regions of the United States. Four working groups (preparedness and mitigation; monitoring, assessment, and prediction; response; and communications) established by the Council will meet in late July to assign priority to action items identified by the Council as important to the WDCC's mission. The administrative leadership for the WDCC is housed at the National Drought Mitigation Center. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/93 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/93 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:43:56 PDT Drought is a creeping, slow-onset natural hazard that is a normal part of climate for virtually all regions of the world; it results in serious economic, social, and environmental impacts. Its onset and end are often difficult to determine, as is its severity. Drought affects more people than any other natural hazard. Lessons from developed and developing countries demonstrate that drought results in significant impacts, regardless of level of development, although the character of these impacts will differ profoundly. At the Meeting on Opportunities for Sustainable Investment in Rainfed Areas of West Asia and North Africa (WANA), held in June 2001 in Rabat, Morocco, participants (including ministerial delegations of 13 countries of the WANA region) concluded that the primary keys to development of drylands in the region were reducing rural poverty, arresting natural resource degradation, accelerating economic growth, diversifying economic opportunities, and enhancing food security. The recurrence of persistent drought was identified as one of the obstacles to achieving these aims. The economic, social, and environmental challenges of drought in developed countries are also significant. Recent droughts in the United States, Canada, and Australia, for example, have resulted in serious impacts in the agriculture, transportation, and energy sectors and also serious water use conflicts and environmental impacts. The impacts of drought, like those of other natural hazards, can be reduced through mitigation and preparedness. Drought preparedness should be an integral part of water resources management. Drought risk is a product of a region's or community's exposure to the natural hazard and its vulnerability to extended periods of water shortage. If nations, regions, and communities are to make progress in reducing the serious consequences of drought, they must improve their understanding of the hazard and the factors that influence vulnerability. The hazard or natural event is best characterized by the frequency of meteorological drought at different levels of intensity and duration, and this frequency is projected to increase for some regions in the future as a result of increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It critical for drought-prone regions to better understand the drought climatology of their region and establish comprehensive and integrated early warning systems that incorporate climate, soil, and water supply factors such as precipitation, temperature, soil moisture, snow pack, reservoir and lake levels, groundwater levels, and stream flow. An integrated early warning system can provide timely and reliable information to decision makers from farm to national level to aid in reducing the impacts of drought. Donald A. Wilhite http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/92 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/92 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:40:46 PDT Australia is an arid continent with a high variability in its annual rainfall. Given the frequency and severity of droughts and the consequent high financial and social costs to the nation and to individuals, and the associated potential for further degradation of the land, a national policy on drought was clearly needed. Australia's National Drought Policy (NDP) was ratified by the state and Commonwealth (federal) governments in 1992 (White, 1993; White et al., 1993; White and O'Meagher, 1995). Its aims are to: encourage primary producers and other sections of rural Australia to adopt self-reliant approaches to managing for climatic variability; maintain and protect Australia's agricultural and environmental resource base during periods of extreme climate stress; and ensure early recovery of agricultural and rural industries, consistent with long-term sustainable levels. Further detail on policy evolution in both Australia and South Africa is described by O'Meagher, et al. (1998b). David H. White http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/91 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/91 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:40:44 PDT The objectives of Australia's National Drought Policy (NDP), agreed to by Commonwealth (national), state, and territory ministers in 1992, are to: encourage primary producers and other sections of rural Australia to adopt self-reliant approaches to managing the risks stemming from climatic variability; maintain and protect Australia's agricultural and environmental resource base during periods of extreme climate stress; and ensure early recovery of agricultural and rural industries consistent with long-term sustainable levels. Under the NDP, Australian farmers are expected to assume greater responsibility for managing the risks arising from climatic variability. This requires integrating financial and business management with production and resource management to ensure that the financial and physical resources of farm businesses are used efficiently. Details of the NDP and its implementation are described in previous issues of Drought Network News (White, 1992 and 1993; White et al., 1993a). Since the signing of the National Drought Policy Statement in 1992, the states and territories have moved to implement the range of measures spelled out in the NDP (White, 1993) by: implementing the National Property Management Planning Campaign, with emphasis on education in effective risk management, sustainable agriculture, and drought preparedness; phasing out transaction-based subsidies, particularly freight subsidies for the transport of fodder, water, and livestock provided by state and territory governments; providing financial assistance through the Rural Adjustment Scheme (RAS) to farmers exposed to exceptional drought circumstances; and undertaking drought-related research and development, with emphasis on drought prediction, monitoring, and management. David H. White http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/90 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/90 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:35:25 PDT In dryland areas of India, rainfall is the main source of water for raising crops. For these areas, the greatest problem is not water shortage per se, but rather the tremendous variability in rainfall from year to year and season to season. In planning for the coming season, we currently have little or no ability to predict the date of the onset of rains or their amount, distribution, or duration. However, uncertainty about rainfall is lessened when information is available concerning the possible variability and frequencies of historical occurrences of rainfall. This information can be obtained by coupling water use to water production functions that enable estimates of associated crop yields and economic returns (Stewart and Hagan, 1973; and Doorenbos and Kassam, 1979). Therefore, in the present study, a simple water balance model developed by Frere and Popov (1979) was used to estimate crop water use; when coupled with water production functions, it explains yield behavior of the following crops (with respect to different dates of commencement of the rainy season): sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench), pearl millet (Pinnisatum americanum L. Leek), sunflower (Helianthus annus L.), castor (Ricinus communis L.), and pigeon pea (Cajanus cajan L. Millisp.) These crops are grown in Hyderabad under high management and rainfed conditions. U. S. Victor http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/89 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/89 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:32:18 PDT India is primarily an agricultural country, despite making rapid strides in industrialization in recent decades. The Indian economy is therefore highly dependent on the behavior of the summer monsoon, also known as the southwest monsoon, which occurs during four months (June-September). This accounts for 75% of the annual rainfall over most parts of the country and also generates great demand for rainfall forecasts in different time scales. For nearly a century, Indian meteorologists have been attempting to develop suitable techniques that could be used for preparing long-range forecasts of monsoon rains over India. Walker (1923) has done pioneering work in this field and has introduced the concept of correlation as a measure of interrelationship between preceding events anywhere in the world and subsequent monsoon rainfall over India. Since then, considerable efforts have been made to predict the behavior of monsoons by employing teleconnection signals depicted by the various features of general circulation. During the last seven years, the India Meteorological Department has been issuing forecasts on an all-India basis, accurately using a power regression model based on 16 regional and global parameters, including El Niño (Gowariker et al., 1991). However, these forecasts have seldom been used for precise agricultural planning in any one specific region of the country. The obvious drawback is the uncertainty about the reliability of an all-India forecast for a given meteorological subdivision. Ramana Rao et al. (1994) examined the validity of forecasts for the country as a whole in agricultural planning and management over different meteorological subdivisions. They have also examined the validity of long-range forecasts at the district level in the state of Andhra Pradesh, in southeast India. In this study, we have attempted to examine the behavior of monsoon rainfall in space and time in relation to the El Niño event at the district level in Andhra Pradesh during the years with long-range forecasts of both deficit and normal rainfall on an all-India basis. U. S. Victor http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/88 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/88 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:28:51 PDT During recent years, severe and extreme droughts in Mexico and their consequent water deficits have become more recurrent and persistent, according to historic records and the experiences of those who have lived through these events. In Mexico, agriculture consumes more than 85% of the available water. When the available water is insufficient to satisfy agricultural requirements, impacts can be acute. In extreme cases, lack of water has caused severe economic, social, and environmental crises, and recovery from these crises has taken much time and money. The regions that are most affected by drought have some common characteristics: they are the most vulnerable regions, they are more productive than other regions, and they have a greater demand for water than other regions do. The north, northwest, and northeast regions, in which are located the most important irrigation zones and most of the industrial plants, constitute 70% of the country, but these regions receive less than 40% of the country's total rainfall. The southeast region, constituting 30% of the country, receives 60% or more of the total rain; in this part of the country, the rivers are larger with regular flows, and there are wide humid zones where irrigation is unnecessary. (Figure 1 shows the main hydrogeographic regions of Mexico.) The few remaining nonirrigated areas, which benefit from summer rains, have also been drastically affected by drought, because they do not have alternate sources of viable water or fast response capabilities. Israel Velasco http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/87 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/87 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:25:51 PDT In Raipur district, the onset of the monsoon occurred in the 25th standard meteorological week (June 18-24). But after the onset of monsoonal rains, there was a lull in the monsoon for about 2 consecutive weeks. In the 28th week (July 9-15), the district received 77.6 mm of rainfall. This was equal to the normal value for that week. In the following (29th) week, the district received 96.8 mm rainfall, 38.9% more than the normal rainfall for that week. Thus, the rice, soybean, and other crops sown with the onset of the monsoon in the 25th week suffered from acute water shortage during the 26th and 27th weeks (June 25-July 8), and the germination of these crops was affected. Those farmers who had resown their crop received good rainfall during the 28th and 29th weeks (July 9-22). In the 32nd week, there was a total rainfall of 258.4 mm at Labhandi, Raipur, compared to the weekly normal of 77.1 mm. However, out of this, 222.0 mm of rainfall was received in only one day--July 31/August 1, 1996. Because the rice seedlings were very small at that stage, most farmers drained the water out of their fields. J. S. Urkurkar http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/86 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/86 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:25:49 PDT Climatic uncertainty posed by the looming possibility of unprecedented climatic change is presenting society with new challenges the world over. In recent years, demand for long-range seasonal to interannual climate forecasts has been on the rise as society grapples with climatic risk management in southern Africa. Although more investment is still required to bring weather services in the region to a level advanced enough to handle the emerging complex and economically justified user needs for climatic services and products, some commendable progress has already been made, particularly in providing seasonal forecasts in addition to the other traditional core services and products provided by weather centers. The regional Drought Monitoring Centre for southern Africa based in Harare has put in place operational regional seasonal rainfall forecasting schemes that are largely driven by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, the Indian and Atlantic SST, and the regional pressure and wind anomaly fields at various levels. Matarira and Unganai (1994) produced an operational regional ENSO signal interpretation scheme that has been quite successful at predicting the 1994-95 drought and the nature of the 1995-96 rainy season in southern Africa. This empirical seasonal forecasting scheme uses an analogue approach and univariate linear regression models and is complemented by subjective interpretation of other regional scale factors such as the general tendency in pressure and wind anomaly fields. Figures 1a and 1b show the analogue scheme, which relies mainly on the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), as applied to the 1994-95 and 1995- 96 rainy season forecasts, respectively. Recent advances in seasonal forecasting work include the identification of a strong teleconnection between southern African and Ethiopian rainfall at a time lag of up to 4 months. The influence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) on the region's rainfall has been remodeled, with early results showing that areas in the region that respond significantly to the QBO phase shift are localized. Northern Zambia, northern Malawi, and Tanzania rainfall showed the strongest response to the QBO. This latest research was carried out at DMC-Harare by L. Unganai (DMC-Harare), S. Nyambe (Zambia Met. Services) and J. L. Nkhokwe (Malawi Met. Services) while Nyambe and Nkhokwe were visiting scientists at the Centre from October 1995 to May 1996. Leonard S. Uganai http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/85 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/85 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:21:10 PDT Drought is a normal part of southern Africa's climate and one of the most important natural disasters in southern Africa. In fact, it is becoming increasingly unusual for drought not to occur somewhere in southern Africa each year. The dependence of most southern African economies on rainfed agriculture emphasizes the importance of drought early warning products for short- and long-term decision making in various sectors of the national economies of the region. Following the 1991-92 drought, which ravaged more than 80% of southern Africa, many in southern Africa now realize the value of meteorological information in weather-sensitive decisions. Requests for advanced drought information have come to the drought monitoring center from a wide spectrum of users, including farmer groups, donor agencies, finance houses, politicians, economists, the media, and hydrologists. Information has been requested for precipitation predictions for periods ranging from ten days, to seasons (in the case of farmer organizations), to as long as four to five years (in the case of agricultural financing institutions). The creation of a regional drought monitoring center (DMC) in Harare, Zimbabwe, in 1989 (the DMC opened in 1991) was long overdue, according to some farmers' representatives, nongovernmental organizations, universities, government departments, and other regional and international organizations. Many of these organizations have called for the enhancement of the DMC, including increases in manpower, more computer hardware and software, and applications-oriented research to enable the center to develop into a regional center of excellence in applied meteorology and to act as a regional climatological data archive and backup facility. Will all this awareness and support that the DMC has enjoyed live through nondrought years? Laing (1994) cautions about the possibility of apathy after a few years of good rains. Wilhite (1992) has also given similar warnings; these warnings need to be taken seriously by all those who have supported drought monitoring institutions in the past. Leonard S. Uganai http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/84 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/84 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:21:04 PDT The climate of Turkey, which is mainly characterized by the Mediterranean macro climate, results from the seasonal alternation of frontal depressions with polar air masses and subtropical high pressures with subsiding maritime tropical and continental tropical air masses. Continental tropical airstreams from the northern African and Arabian deserts particularly dominate throughout the summer, by causing long-lasting warm (hot) and dry conditions over Turkey (except the Black Sea region and northeastern Anatolia). Turkey has an area of 779,452 km2 and an average elevation of 1,132 m. This study outlines some spatial and temporal characteristics of Turkey's rainfall, particularly in terms of drought and rainfall variability for the period 1930-93. Mean characteristics of the rainfall data were investigated for 99 stations, and then variations of Turkey's 91-station normalized rainfall series and spatial distribution of the normalized rainfall index were analyzed. Average record length of these stations is about 60 years. Approximately 67% of the countrywide annual rainfall occurs during the cold winter (40%) and cool spring (26.6%), when the eastern Mediterranean basin, Balkans, and Turkey are influenced by the frontal mid-latitude and Mediterranean depressions. Contributions of autumn and summer rainfall are about 23% and 10%, respectively, of the annual total. In area-averaged series for the Mediterranean region, winter rainfall reaches its maximum value at about 53% of the annual total, and summer rainfall declines to about 4% of the annual total. The number of stations in each rainfall regime region is given in Table 1, and the location of 99 stations is shown in Figure 1. Murat Türkes http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/83 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/83 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:17:04 PDT Farmers who are losing their livelihoods to the drought shouldn't be surprised to feel depressed or angry, and neither should people around them. After all, these farmers are suffering a very real loss and they are grieving. Farmers who lose a crop in many ways will react as have people who have lost loved ones, said John DeFrain, family and community development specialist at the University of Nebraska here. That is, they go into shock, denial and anger, and not necessarily in that order. The loss of a crop means a loss of time, expenses, identity and, in some cases, a family tradition, DeFrain said. The worst nine-month drought in the state's history meant spring crops were planted in soils six to eight inches short of moisture. While there was sufficient moisture to get most of those crops up, without additional moisture by mid-June, dryland crops likely will burn up. Eastern and central and southwest Nebraska are affected the most, with the southeast being hardest hit. The drought is expected to continue for the rest of the year. Cheryl Alberts http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/82 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/82 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:14:17 PDT Drought affected China's agricultural production in spring, summer, and fall 1994. The summer drought was very severe in the middle part of China, especially in Anhui and Jiansu provinces. Huajie Tai http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/81 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/81 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:11:32 PDT Drought is part of the environment. It occurs in every part of the globe and adversely affects the lives of a large number of people, causing considerable damage to economies, the environment, and property. It also affects countries differently, having a greater impact on countries with poor economic conditions. Recurrent drought in Africa in the last 30 years has had a disastrous effect on an economic and social situation that already had serious problems. Today, in the aftermath of these devastating droughts, planning and preparedness have become more important. Most disasters, including droughts, are no accident. They are made by misgovernment. However, competent governments, given foresight and funds, can build defenses against these natural disasters. The enormous physical consequences of drought and the huge financial cost of relief efforts (compared to prevention) have led Africa to improve its drought management and preparedness scheme regularly. Tsegaye Tadesse http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/80 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/80 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:08:36 PDT The idea of better monitoring and assessing drought has been a quest of NDMC director Don Wilhite for more than two decades. He has been an advocate of better climate monitoring, particularly drought monitoring, because drought is a normal, recurring hazard in virtually all of the United States. The challenge is to recognize drought, a slow-onset or "creeping" natural disaster, before a region is in the middle of one. The most recent surge in interest in drought arose during the 1995-96 drought in the Southwest and southern Great Plains states. At the NDMC we discussed how we could do a better job of tracking and assessing the severity of droughts. One question we often hear is "How does this drought compare, or rank, to other droughts or the drought of record for this region or state?" Or "Just how strong or severe is this drought?" These are complicated questions to tackle. We have to take into account spatial extent, intensity, duration, and impacts on people and the affected environment. That discussion is for another time. Mark Svoboda http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/79 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/79 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:06:01 PDT In the Chhattisgarh plains in the agroclimatic region of central India (Figure 1), farms may be characterized by one of the following: unbunded lathyritic soils, bunded rice fields (rainfed), bunded rice fields (irrigated), unbunded black soils, or rice bunds. Under these five farming situations, different crop sequences have been in vogue. New crops and crop sequences are recommended by the Agricultural University from time to time based on experimental results. In the unbunded black soils, farmers usually plant small millets and pigeon pea. However, based on experimental results, the University has recommended soybean followed by chickpea crop sequence under rainfed conditions during monsoon and post-monsoon (winter) seasons, respectively. In the two to three years since that recommendation, the area under soybeans has increased from 3,000 ha to more than 70,000 ha. Experimental results have shown that the evapotranspiration (ET) rate of the soybean crop during peak vegetative and reproductive stages is very high, ranging between 5 mm and 6 mm per day. In view of this, soybeans have been recommended only for heavy soils. Even in black soils with high retention capacity, water stress conditions do occur during dry spells in the monsoon season. After the withdrawal of monsoon rains in September, soybeans sometimes face acute water shortage during the end of reproductive and maturity stages. Ajay K. Srivastava http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/78 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/78 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 13:02:02 PDT The drought of 1992 persisted through the winter of 1993 (see Drought Network News, Vol. 5, No. 2 [June 1993]:12-15). Figure 1 shows the monthly values of national rainfall in 1993 and their normal averages. National rainfall was 28% and 63%, respectively, of the mean during January and February 1993. During March, rainfall was about normal, but drought conditions persisted because of the rainfall deficit from the summer of 1992. Water supplies increased until 20 April 1993, but after this date, drought conditions returned. At the end of April, the soil moisture in the 0-20 cm layer was 10- 25 mm, which is insufficient for normal emergence and growth of spring crops. The development of winter crops was also delayed. In some areas of the country, the available soil moisture in the top 1 mm was only 60-71% of the available capacity in April. Nikola Slavov http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/77 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/77 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:54:05 PDT Peninsular India is located in the tropics; its climate ranges from arid conditions in the rain shadow region (under the influence of Eastern Ghats along the east coast and Western Ghats along the west coast) to humid conditions in regions adjoining the west coast. The average annual rainfall in the region varies from about 500 mm in the interior parts to more than 3000 mm on the crest of Western Ghats. The rainy season commences during the month of June because of the onset of the southwest monsoon near the tip of peninsular India. The southwest monsoon ends during September. The rainy season continues up to the end of November because of the northeast monsoon in the southeastern parts of peninsular India. Crop production under rainfed conditions in the arid and semiarid regions is often affected by droughts during the monsoon season because of prolonged dry spells associated with break monsoon conditions. Sometimes, heavy rainfall occurs even in the drier regions because of severe cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal. Rainwater management is crucial for improving productivity, particularly during the years of drought. Therefore the daily rainfall data of two typical locations representing both arid and semiarid climates were analyzed to evolve the basis for rainwater management to improve crop production in drylands. J. B. Singh http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/76 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/76 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:49:48 PDT Southwest monsoon rainfall (received during June-September) determines the fate of millions of dryland farmers as well as the status of national food security in India almost every year. The need for information about southwest monsoon rainfall is great in these areas. An accurate long-range forecast can help farmers increase agricultural productivity in good rainfall years and negate the sudden downturns in agricultural production during anticipated drought years by giving farmers sufficient time to adopt drought-resistant crop varieties and appropriate crop, soil, and water management practices. The India Meteorological Department is now able to make all-India long-range forecasts of southwest monsoon rainfall accurately using a power regression model based on 16 regional and global parameters from 1988 on. However, these forecasts have seldom been used for strategic planning and management of agricultural production in any of the regions of the country, because the degree to which the all-India forecast is likely to hold true at microlevel is not known. The reliability of the forecast needs to be established at microlevel in order to make effective use of the long-range predictions for agricultural planning and management in rainfed areas. Therefore, an attempt has been made to examine the validity of the long-range forecast issued for the country as a whole for agricultural planning and management at the Jhansi and West Uttar Pradesh Plains meteorological subdivisions. The present investigation is based on seasonal (June to September) rainfall data for the years 1958-92 at the West Uttar Pradesh Plains meteorological subdivision (subdivision no. 11). The seasonal rainfall data for the same period for Jhansi have also been considered to examine the extent to which the long-range forecast was relevant at microlevel. J. B. Singh http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/75 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/75 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:45:51 PDT Following the severe drought event that occurred in Italy in 1988-90, the Italian Department of Civil Protection published a report, Drought in Italy 1988-90 (in Italian; edited by G. Rossi and G. Margaritora), containing a comprehensive description of the drought event, its impacts, and the mitigation measures adopted in the most affected regions. Since the beginning of the drought, the Department promoted and coordinated a number of initiatives, aiming mainly to mitigate domestic and agricultural water shortages. The Department also formed a drought committee, which included representatives of various government agencies (in charge of hydrometeorological data collection and water supply system management), with the aim of acquiring timely information on the evolution of the drought in different parts of the country and suggesting adequate actions. The book presents the results of the activities coordinated by the Committee--namely, the description of the meteorological and hydrological characteristics of the 1988-90 drought, the main impacts of the drought on municipal and irrigation systems, and the assessment of measures implemented at the national and local levels. The following summary of the book provides a picture of the most severe drought experienced in Italy in the last fifty years and some information on recent initiatives and laws at the national level to reduce the risk of water shortage during future drought events. A study of the meteorological trends in the 1988-90 period, prepared by the Italian Air Force Meteorological Service, shows that the position of the 500 hPa isobaric surface over the Mediterranean basin during the drought period was significantly higher than the reference average values. The presence of persistent anticyclones during the entire decade (1980-90) became especially critical between September 1988 and March 1989 and between September 1989 and March 1990, leading to precipitation lower than long-term average values for all of Italy. Giuseppe Rossi http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/74 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/74 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:41:43 PDT The National Drought Mitigation Center is conducting a series of regional workshops, "Planning for the Next Drought," around the country in 1997 and 1998. The first workshop was in Albuquerque, New Mexico, July 28-30. Plans are underway to conduct similar workshops in other regions. A second workshop will probably be held in Salt Lake City in late 1997, followed by workshops in the Southeast and Midwest in 1998. Because the workshops are sponsored by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, there is no registration fee. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/73 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/73 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:38:42 PDT Western Rajasthan constitutes 62% of the 0.32 million km2 that make up the hot Indian arid region (Figure 1). The average annual rainfall of the area varies from less than 100 mm (coefficient of variation [CV] = 70%) in the western parts to just above 500 mm (CV = 40%) in the eastern parts of arid Rajasthan. During July and August, the eastern parts of the arid region have an assured crop growing period of 12-15 weeks, whereas the western parts mostly depend on the vagaries of the southwest monsoon. The annual potential evapotranspiration rates are 3-8 times higher than the annual rainfall, resulting in extreme water deficits and aridity conditions in the region (Figure 2). Pearl millet, which is a principal cereal crop of the arid region, needs about 90 days for its maturity, and any weather aberrations after sowing result in considerable reduction in crop yields. Agricultural droughts have been found to occur in the region in 25%-48% of the years during 1901 to 1995, with a frequency and intensity varying from one location to another, severely affecting food and fodder production. A. S. Rao http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/72 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/72 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:34:20 PDT The Karnataka state, confined roughly within 11.5° N and 18.5° N latitude and 74° E and 78.5° E longitude, is situated on a table land at the point where the western and eastern Ghat range enclose the Nilgiri hill complex. It is enclosed by chains of mountains to its west, east, and south. The state consists mainly of plateau, with a higher elevation of 600 to 900 m amsl in small portions of the extreme north and northwest Karnataka and the whole of the southern half, an elevation of 300 to 600 m amsl in the north, and an elevation of less than 300 m amsl in the narrow coastal belt of the state (see map above). Using Koppen's climatic classification, the state is classified into three main parts, coastal Karnataka (CK), north interior Karnataka (NIK), and south interior Karnataka (SIK). M. B. Rajegowda http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/71 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/71 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:30:53 PDT Precipitation is one of the climatic elements most affected by the presence of La Niña in Chile. An important precipitation deficit begins during La Niña events, from latitude 45°S to the north. This deficit prevails most of the year, with winter (April-September) being most vulnerable to these anomalies. The central region of Chile (30°S to 40°S) has negative anomalies, with precipitation values 35% to 100% below the climatologic annual average. These rain deficiencies in Chile are determined by the persistence of anomalies of anticyclonal circulation of middle and subtropical latititudes and an area of anomalies of cyclonic circulation in the sub-polar latitudes, from a north-south dipole of positive and negative anomalies of geopotential height in the mid troposphere. In Chile, La Niña usually produces air temperatures lower than normal, with deviations ranging from 0°C to -1°C. The social and economic impacts of La Niña events in Chile are serious. Agriculture, cattle and timber industries, energy, and industrial sectors are the most affected. Juan Quintana http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/70 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/70 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:28:32 PDT A new quarterly report, Western Climate and Water Status, provides decision makers in the western United States with a comprehensive assessment of water supply indicators that can give early warning of emerging droughts. A product of the Western Drought Coordination Council, the report is an important new connection between scientists and policy makers. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/69 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/69 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:26:14 PDT The drought that gripped the Southwest and southern Great Plains states in 1996 was the most recent reminder of the nation's continuing and apparently increasing vulnerability to drought. Although drought is a common feature in the West, it is a normal part of the climate of each region of the United States: drought struck the Southeast in 1986; most of the country, especially the Midwest and Plains states, in 1988-89; the West from 1987 to 1992; and the Northeast in 1995. Experiences from each of these droughts reinforce the need for advance planning. Even though drought is a slow-onset disaster, it is difficult to respond quickly and effectively to reduce the effects of drought unless a contingency plan is already in place. Citizens and stakeholders benefit from the coordinated efforts of local, state, federal, and tribal governments and agencies. The National Drought Mitigation Center is organizing a series of workshops, each in a different region of the country, on how to prepare for drought. Workshops in Albuquerque and Salt Lake City were held in July and November 1997, respectively, and additional workshops are now planned for the Southeast, Midwest and Northeast, and Great Plains regions. Workshop participants will learn how to develop a drought plan. Participants will also have the opportunity to discuss their specific planning needs with experts and learn how others coped with recent droughts. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/68 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/68 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:20:37 PDT Interannual climate variability poses the greatest risk that farmers face. Until recently, seasonal climate forecasts have been weak and therefore rarely observed by farmers in making management decisions. Farm management is generally based on long-term mean expectations of climate and crop responses to local edaphic conditions. Currently, significant progress is being made in the skill level of predictions of seasonal to interannual climate, primarily because of new understanding of the teleconnections between ocean circulation and atmospheric processes. The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) refers to fluctuations in both sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific and in sea-level pressures in the southern Pacific at a time scale of roughly 3 to 7 years. Using ocean circulation models, we are now able to forecast the SST anomaly up to a year in advance with an 80% level of accuracy (Latif et al., 1994). Thus, associated climate phenomena may be predicted with a high degree of skill using this tool. Given the strong relationship between crop growth and climate, this predictability carries significant implications for improved efficiency of agricultural production (Adams et al., 1995; Sonka et al., 1986). In some regions, the teleconnection between climate and ENSO has been well established. In others, however, the relationship is only now being elucidated. Thus, the spatial extent of the potential for use of ENSO forecasts is not well defined. We are developing a methodology that uses analysis of historical climate and crop data as well as models of crop growth and farm management to explore the extent of ENSO impacts and implications for using forecasts in agricultural management. Based on the few studies that have been done, there is indication of a significant link between ENSO and climate in the midwestern United States. Using reconstruction from white oak tree rings in Iowa going back to 1640, Cleveland and Duvick (1992) showed a strong correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index, one indicator of the ENSO phase. Handler (1984) used yield data from the major Corn Belt states going back to 1868 and a classification scheme ranking event intensity. He found a strong relationship, with El Niño years associated with positive maize yield anomalies and La Niña with negative anomalies. Our current work extends the analysis of the U.S. Corn Belt, with the objective of testing the potential for using long-range ENSO/climate forecasts to increase profit margins and decrease risk for maize farmers in the United States. Jennifer G. Phillips http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/67 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/67 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:16:21 PDT The summer monsoon (June through September), or southwest seasonal rains, contribute 78% of India's annual rainfall. It is the greatest climatic water resource of India. The country's agriculture and food production depend on these rains. Rainfed farming areas in India account for about 70% of the total arable land in the country, with nearly 100 million ha depending on the monsoon rains. The rains also contribute to power generation and industrial production. B. Parathasarathy http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/66 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/66 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:13:03 PDT All of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member countries of western Africa were represented at a seminar conducted in Banjul, The Gambia, 4-9 September 1995. The Training Seminar on Drought Preparedness and Management for Western Africa was conducted to improve awareness of drought and appropriate mitigation and preparedness technologies to reduce impacts. The seminar was organized by WMO and sponsored by WMO and the UN Sudano-Sahelian Office. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/65 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/65 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:10:49 PDT Recent extreme rainfall events and the frequent occurrence of worldwide droughts and their associated natural disasters (i.e., devastating bushfires in Australia, Indonesia, and Italy during 1997; the current severe drought in Iran) have increased the scientific community's interest in the broad characteristics of rainfall variation and the potential for rainfall prediction. On the basis of the Koppen climate classification (Ahrens, 1998), the Islamic Republic of Iran (Figure 1) is categorized as generally having arid (BW) and semiarid (BS) climates. This signifies that the annual precipitation is less than the potential annual loss of water through evapotranspiration. The occurrence of rainfall is unreliable and deviations from the mean are generally more than 40%. The average annual precipitation over the country is estimated to be about 250 mm (about one-third of global annual precipitation). Iran, with an area of 1,648,000 km2, lies predominantly within a portion of the Alpine-Himalayan chains, including the major mountain systems of the Alborz and Zagros ranges (Figure 2). As indicated in this figure, the central part of Iran, which is surrounded by these ranges, comprises two uninhabited deserts, Dasht-e Lut and Dasht-e Kavir. In spite of severe dry conditions over these regions, the Zagros and Alborz highlands, like the coastal strip of the Caspian Sea, are classified as having a Mediterranean climate (Csb) and usually receive moderate precipitation. M. J. Nazemosadat http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/64 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/64 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 12:04:48 PDT As a result of the occurrence of overwhelming severe drought over most parts of the Islamic Republic of Iran, an educational/professional workshop on drought issues was held at the College of Agriculture, Shiraz University in Iran, October 18-19, 2000. The workshop was sponsored by the College of Agriculture, the office of Fars Provincial Government, the Agricultural Bank, and Shiraz Abfa Company. The workshop was mainly focused on the assessment of drought impacts and severity in Fars province, in the southern part of Iran. The inauguration ceremony was attended by some of the parliament members (from Fars province), the Chancellor of Shiraz University and his deputies, the construction deputy of Fars Government, the director of the National Disaster Office (NDO), the NDO staff in Fars Province, general managers from various departments of the province, postgraduate students, and about 400 professional staff from various disciplines. All sessions, including the closing session, were well attended by the participants. M. J. Nazemosadat http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/63 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/63 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:55:32 PDT The Islamic Republic of Iran (Figure 1) has an area of 1,648,000 km2 and a population of 65 million people (1995 estimate). The country has arid and semiarid climates and the occurrence of rainfall is unreliable, with a coefficient of variation as high as 70%. The average annual precipitation over the country is around 250 mm. Two mountain ridges, the Alborz and Zagros (Figure 1), which run east and southeast from the northwest corner of the country, play an influential role in determining the amount and spatial distribution of rainfall. The peaks of Alborz and Zagros are about 5,700 m and 4,000 m, respectively. Rainfall generally occurs from October to March (winter), with extreme events during January and February. Annual rainfall over the northern sides of the Alborz range may reach 1,800 mm, but for the central and eastern deserts, the yearly total is around 50 mm. Droughts and floods are common, and the severity and hardships of these natural disasters frequently hit both rural and urban societies. Drought limits dryland farming and affects the productivity of irrigated lands. Moreover, due to massive overgrazing, large-scale soil erosion occurs during dry spells. Atmospheric and climatic incidents (i.e., floods, droughts, and lightning) account for about 97% of all natural disaster costs. Concern about water resources is currently realized as one of the most important issues for most of the Iranian scientific and management communities. Most parts of the Islamic Republic of Iran recently experienced an exceptional drought that lasted more than 2 years (1998-2000). In some areas, drought has also extended into winter 2001. The 1998-2000 drought inflicted $3.5 billion in damages, killing 800,000 head of livestock and drying up major reservoirs and internal lakes (Pagano et al., 2001). Nazemosadat and Cordery (2000a) and Nazemosadat (1999) have recently revealed that the autumn rainfall in Iran is negatively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The relationships were found to be strong and consistent over the southern foothills of the Alborz Mountains, northwestern districts, and central areas. Since winter rainfall contributes a major portion of Iranian water resources, the shortage of rainfall during this season is the most important cause of drought in Iran. Nazemosadat and Cordery (2000b) have therefore focused on the impact of ENSO on winter precipitation in Iran. The present study outlines some key results of the aforementioned studies. M. J. Nazemosadat http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/62 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/62 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:52:29 PDT Tamil Nadu experiences recurrent droughts. Tamil literature also indicates that famine-like conditions prevailed during the Pandiyan Kingdom for nearly 12 years. The state normally benefits from northeast monsoon rainfall from October to December, unlike other regions of India, which are dominated by southwest monsoon rainfall. In general, four major parameters determine the nature and extent of drought conditions in Tamil Nadu: (1) rainfall, (2) ground water, (3) reservoir levels, and (4) crop conditions. It is estimated that nearly 50% of the districts in the state are drought-prone. The state receives nearly 80% of its annual rainfall during the northeast monsoon, whereas it experienced below-normal rainfall in the southwest monsoon for 30% of the years in the last 25 years. During the southwest monsoon period, water demand always exceeds rainfall, but the water deficit is quite low in the northeast monsoon period. Hence, due to severe water deficit, drought recurs during the southwest monsoon and also in summer months in Tamil Nadu. K. K. Nathan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/61 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/61 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:47:19 PDT Kerala state in India, which is the first area of the country to experience the southwest monsoon, has a moist and wet climate. Kerala is in the extreme southwestern part of the Indian subcontinent; it borders Karnataka state in the north, Tamil Nadu in the east, and the Arabian Sea in the west (Figure 1). The entire state is one of the 35 meteorological subdivisions in India. Kerala's climate is tropical monsoon and tropical savanna, according to Koppen's climatic classification (Figure 1). The state normally experiences excessive seasonal rainfall, with hot summers (except in the extreme southern districts like Trivandrum, where dry season and hot summer climate prevails). The three main seasons of the state are the hot season (March-May), southwest monsoon season (May- September), and northeast monsoon season (October- February). K. K. Nathan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/60 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/60 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:44:15 PDT In India, about 70% of the cultivable land is rainfed. This includes areas where crops are rarely affected by drought and areas where crops experience moisture stress and often fail. The regions with the latter characteristics are often called dryland areas and the agriculture so practiced there is known as dryland agriculture. About 35% of the total cultivable land belongs in this category. To determine the magnitude of water deficiency in these regions, the moisture deficit index (MDI) has been evaluated for dryland stations in India. The MDI is usually determined on the basis of annual precipitation and annual potential evapotranspiration, as adapted by Thornthwaite and Mather in 1955. This does not reflect the true nature of MDI for the purpose of crop production, although it does give information regarding the degree of aridity. Since this index sometimes is used as a criterion for crop planning, it would appear more appropriate for it to be based on precipitation and PET during the crop growth period. In this article, the monthly MDI for dryland stations in India based on normal data has been worked out. We have also discussed its implications for crop production in relation to other meteorological factors. K. K. Nathan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/59 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/59 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:37:20 PDT The Delhi region, the national capital region of India, is locked in by adjoining states like Uttar Pradesh and Haryana. Delhi has a characteristic continental type of climate, with extreme dryness, intensely hot summers, and dry cold winters. According to climatologists, this region is classified as semiarid tropical steppe. The monsoon rainfall is very erratic during June-September, which is the kharif crop-growing season. The monsoon breaks over the Delhi region between the first and second week of July and withdraws by the last week of September. The average annual rainfall is about 712.5 mm, of which 80% is contributed by the monsoon during kharif season. With ever-increasing population in the Delhi region every year, there is a scarcity of drinking water, ground water levels are rapidly receding, usable land area is rapidly decreasing, and little agricultural activity is possible. Frequent droughts add to the misery. The frequency of droughts in the region is approximately 20-25%, with chronic drought experienced during 1918-19 and 1938-39. K. K. Nathan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/58 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/58 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:34:11 PDT Inadequate water resources pose a big threat to the economy, human activities, and livelihood in the Gujarat/Saurashtra regions of India. Scanty rainfall with wide aberrations in its distribution has made the situation worse, leading to chronic drought in the state in 2001. With the exception of the Narmada and Tapi rivers, there are hardly any water resources to sustain agricultural production in the region. The gradual disappearance of forest cover in the state has further aggravated the drought situation. This has led to large-scale erosion of the topsoil, particularly near the riverside. There is apprehension that the region will soon become an "environmental refugee" zone. In addition, groundwater resources are overexploited in the state, with the water table going down nearly 4 m per year, particularly in the premonsoon season. The state was once a lush green carpet of groundnut and cotton crops, but mismanagement of water resources at all levels has led to the current drought problem in the Gujarat, Saurashtra, and Kutch regions. Figure 1 depicts the current drought-affected regions of the state. India has a record of 12 successive good monsoons, with the 13th in the offing this year. But the drought in the Gujarat and Saurashtra regions may be due to the poor monsoon and winter rainfall last year. The crisis was aggravated by overexploitation and reckless use of groundwater. Out of 100 million people affected by drought in India, 25 million are from this region, spread over 17 districts of the state, and 7 million cattle are also affected. There is a 30% deficit of food grains in this region. K. K. Nathan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/57 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/57 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:31:09 PDT Tamil Nadu, a coastal state in south India, is prone to droughts. The climate of the state ranges from dry subhumid to semiarid. The state has three distinct rainfall climates: (1) advancing monsoon period (from June to September), with strong southwest winds; (2) northeast monsoon (from October to December), with dominant northeast winds; and (3) dry season (from January to May). The normal annual rainfall of the state is about 945 mm. Tamil Nadu is classified into seven agroclimatic zones: northeast, northwest, west, southern, high rainfall, high altitude hilly, and Cauvery Delta (the most fertile agricultural zone). The Cauvery Delta zone, located in the humid tropics, has a mean annual rainfall of 1,273 mm, with more than 60% of that coming from the northeast monsoon. An analysis of summer monsoon rainfall (June-September) for 1871-1991 shows that the state experienced below-normal rainfall in 30% of these years. During the summer, the average rainfall is 266 mm, but water demand is 663 mm. Hence it is a deficit season. The northeast monsoon brings an average of 529 mm rainfall and demand is relatively low--361 mm. K. K. Nathan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/56 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/56 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:28:09 PDT Haryana state is considered the breadbasket of India, along with the Punjab state. The effects of drought (and mitigation of those effects) are therefore of considerable importance for the state. This article considers the state's drought "profile" through a study of six drought years in Haryana. Haryana has a semiarid climate in the southwest and a Gangetic plain environment in the rest of the state. About 50% of the state has a moisture deficit. One of the reasons for adverse crop production in the state during June-September is the early withdrawal or late onset of monsoon rains, which contribute nearly 80% of the state's annual rainfall. The monsoon rain during June-September ranges from 284 mm to 521 mm in the drier western and southern plains and from 333 mm to 721 mm in the eastern districts of the state. The normal value during the period is 601 mm. Figure 1 shows the rainfall pattern during the kharif crop growing season (June-September) for the period 1977 to 1989. Out of 15 years, about 6 drought years have been identified: 1979, 1981, 1982, 1986, 1987, and 1989. The minimum deficit was 193 mm (1982) and the maximum rainfall deficit was 437 mm (1987) from the normal seasonal rainfall. Dependable precipitation at 75% level of probability is also depicted in Figure 1. Out of 12 districts in the state, 4 are drought-prone. The main problems with agricultural drought in this region are erratic rainfall; poor soil fertility; and limited, poor-quality irrigation water. Table 1 shows rainfall amounts and crops cultivated in the drought-prone districts of Haryana. Invariably, bajra, jowar, and maize crops are grown in the drought-prone districts in the monsoon season, whereas wheat, barley, mustard, and gram are grown with irrigation during the winter season. These winter-season crops are called rabi crops. K. Kailasa Nathan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/55 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/55 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:21:01 PDT The Persian Gulf and Oman Sea, situated over the northwestern extremity of the tropical Indian Ocean, make up the southern border of Iran (Figure 1). During hot seasons, the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) of these water bodies are high, and a huge thermal trough system is usually dominant over the region (Bitan and Sa'aroni, 1992). The summer SSTs of the Persian Gulf are reported to be the highest in the world (Gabler, 1977). About 30% of the total rain-bearing air masses coming to the country originate in north Africa, the Red Sea, and western Saudi Arabia (Khalili, 1992). These air masses are known as the Sudan Current; they are categorized as tropical maritime. They produce a significant portion of the total annual rainfall over the southern parts of Iran. Figure 2 shows that the general trajectory of the Sudan Current passes over Saudi Arabia and enters Iran through the Persian Gulf. The occurrence of some heavy winter rainfalls in Shiraz, Fasa, Bushehr, and Bandar Lengeh (Figure 1) is attributed to the movement of the Sudan Current toward Iran (Khalili, 1992). M. Jafar Nasemosadat http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/54 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/54 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:16:04 PDT The Workshop on Drought and Desertification was held in Israel from 26 to 30 May 1997. Forty-four participants from Africa, Asia, and Europe took part in the Workshop, which was sponsored by WMO. Three foreign experts provided in-depth analysis on drought and drought preparedness--Dr. O. Brunini (Campinas, Brazil), Prof. S. Mei (CAAS, Beijing, China), and Dr. D. Wilhite (University of Nebraska, USA), in addition to the Israeli lecturers. Presentations by lecturers and discussions were conducted under the following four main headings: 1. Drought and Desertification Definitions. 2. Drought Causes and Management Response. 3. Drought Monitoring and Mitigation. 4. Assessing Drought Impact and the Development of a Rational Policy. J. Lomas http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/53 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/53 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:12:17 PDT Temperature plays a vital role in life processes and crop production. Physical and chemical processes within plants are temperature dependent; these processes in turn control biological reactions in crop plants. Temperature also plays a significant role in some aspects of crop physiological cycles: the diffusion rate of gases and liquids changes with temperature; the solubility of substances is temperature dependent; rapid progress occurs as a result of temperature increases; and the equilibrium and stability of various systems and compounds (including enzymes) is a function of temperature. Air temperature at the screen level is one of the most important variables affecting crop production in temperate Kashmir. Most crop plants are injured or killed by low night temperatures, especially those plants that are growing rapidly or flowering. Low temperature in combination with wet soil may result in the accumulation of harmful products in plant cells while low temperature coupled with water shortage results in cold drought. Badrul Hasan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/52 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/52 Wed, 03 Sep 2008 11:07:20 PDT One of the external factors responsible for the interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR--June through September) is the El Niño phenomenon. About half of the droughts over India have been related to this phenomenon. Other external factors, such as the Eurasian snow, also affect the year-to-year variability of the ISMR. It is believed that in such cases, the ISMR becomes locked into its own internal dynamics. R. H. Kripalani http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/51 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/51 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:33:06 PDT It is now well recognized that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the single most important cause of year-to-year climatic variability. Several studies have documented that a majority of the warm extremes (El Niño events) cause below-normal rainfall over Indonesia, while cold extremes (La Niña events) cause above-normal rainfall over India. During the current ongoing El Niño episode, temperature anomalies in the Niño 1+2, Niño 3, and Niño 3.4 regions have been the largest values observed in the last 50 years. The pattern of anomalous tropical convection with enhanced activity across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and suppressed convection over the Indonesian and western Pacific has prevailed since March 1997. This has resulted in drought over Indonesia. Much of Indonesia is suffering its worst drought in 50 years as a result of the effects of the latest El Niño system on weather. However, during this episode, the June-September Indian monsoon rainfall (IMR) was normal--102% of the long-term average. In fact, some regions experienced severe floods. We propose a new hypothesis to explain this. R. H. Kripalani http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/50 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/50 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:29:49 PDT Unprecedented heat wave conditions occurred during May-June 1998 across Asia. Unusually high temperatures were recorded in western India, Pakistan, eastern China, Japan, and Southeast Asia. Even the United States, western Africa, eastern Canada, and western Australia experienced the blistering heat spell. Some reports blame people for the global warming. The world is warming because of the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, resulting in an increase in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The 1998 heat wave prompted the United Nations Environment Programme to issue an urgent warning and a wakeup call to limit the emission of global warming gases. The year 1998 may in fact be the hottest year of this millennium. R. H. Kripalani http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/49 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/49 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:26:22 PDT Drought is a natural phenomenon that has significant economic, social, and environmental impacts. Drought differs from other natural hazards in that its onset and end are difficult to determine. It develops slowly, and its impacts may remain for years after termination of the event. No single definition of drought exists that applies to all circumstances, but most definitions of drought are based on an expression of deficiency of precipitation resulting in water shortage for some activity related to use of water (Wilhite and Glantz, 1985; Dracup et al., 1980). Water resources planners usually rely on quantitative indices to decide whether or not a drought exists. Consequences of drought are usually defined by the impacts that human use systems place on water supply. Drought impacts are usually first apparent in agriculture but gradually move to other water-dependent sectors. Recovery time for water stored in surface and subsurface systems can be quite long under severe drought conditions. Risk of drought is still a major concern in parts of Turkey where precipitation amounts are low and extremely variable. The combination of rainfall deficiency and other climatic factors, especially high temperature, creates a serious risk of drought in the central and southeastern parts of the country, where agriculture is the main economic sector (Komuscu, 1998). The impacts of drought in the low and variable rainfall regions of the country can be widespread, affecting such diverse sectors as agriculture, irrigation, and energy. In particular, the southeastern Anatolian region, which is the host of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP), may face a serious threat from persisting drought conditions. Moreover, the project includes large-scale irrigation, which stimulates higher competition among the water-dependent sectors. Ali Umran Komuscu http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/48 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/48 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:24:27 PDT The Southeast Anatolia Development Project (known as GAP) is a multifaceted development project for agriculture and water resources within the Turkish portions of the Euphrates and Tigris river basins. Through this project, the vulnerability of the region to drought has been investigated in both temporal and spatial terms. On completion of the project, 28% of the total water potential of Turkey will be brought under control through facilities on the Euphrates and Tigris rivers, which have a joint flow of more than 50 billion m3 (GAP Regional Development Administration, 1997). The GAP project aims to irrigate 8.5 million hectares of land in Southeast Anatolia, which is 19% of the total economically irrigable lands in Turkey. A project of such magnitude inevitably is of major importance to the region's water resources and agricultural potential. It is therefore important to establish reasonable expectations of water use in the GAP region, since agriculture is going to be a critical component of the region's economy in coming decades. The GAP area is located in the continental Mediterranean rainfall region, and its annual precipitation varies between 400 and 800 mm. Annual precipitation decreases from north to south in the region, and the greatest portion of the annual precipitation falls in winter, December and January being the wettest months. Summers in the region are very dry, with high temperatures. Ali Umran Komuscu http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/47 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/47 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:22:29 PDT The National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) is involved in a project with several other agencies and organizations in Canada, Mexico, and the United States to develop a map of the major natural hazards that threaten North America. Work on the project began in February 1995. Since then, there have been three working group meetings, with the most recent meeting taking place in Guadalajara, Mexico, in February 1997. Project leaders include Dr. Chris Tucker (Emergency Preparedness Canada), Dr. Joe Golden (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]), Dr. Rosalind Helz (U.S. Geological Society [USGS]), and Dr. Mario Ordaz- Schroeder (Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres [CENAPRED]--National Center for Disaster Prevention). Michael J. Hayes http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/46 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/46 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:19:35 PDT Successful crop management and production require a precise and thorough understanding of agroclimatic conditions of a region. A crop experiences a range of weather conditions during its vegetative and reproductive phases. Although the agronomic inputs at optimum levels decide satisfactory and stable crop yields, the range of weather and climatic optimum prevalent at important crop stages determine the ultimate yields. Thus, even with all inputs at our disposal, we cannot afford to ignore the environmental conditions experienced by the crop. Systematic and continuous measurements of weather elements provide basic data input for tuning any type of computer-based forecasting system. This data also forms the basis for characterizing the climate of a region. We have, therefore, made an attempt to characterize the weather pattern over temperate Kashmir (India) based on location specific data, further presenting results of forecast analyses done at our level. The analysis is based on medium-range weather forecasts received from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi. Badrul Hasan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/45 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/45 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:16:36 PDT In our recent article on forecasting uncertain weather over temperate Kashmir (India) (Drought Network News, Vol. 9, No. 1, pp. 12-14), we tried to characterize the crop-growing environments by giving long-term means of various agrometeorological parameters (such as air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, and hours of bright sunshine). Forecast analysis for changes in temperature and precipitation events indicated an overall reliability of about 50%. Changes in minimum temperature could be forecasted relatively more accurately than changes in maximum temperature. Precipitation events were more uncertain during summer (May to October), which happens to be an important season from the standpoint of crop production. The present article focuses on the variability of Kashmir weather and its possible impact on summer and winter crops of the region. Historical weather data has been analyzed on a "weekly/monthly mean" basis to depict the ranges between which they might have fluctuated. The analysis is based on calculation of standard deviations. Results of one such analysis are depicted in Figure 1, which shows substantial variability in all weather elements. With the exception of one or two months, the parameters of precipitation and weekly duration of sunshine are quite inconsistent. A similar graph (Figure 2) has been prepared on a weekly mean basis wherein the means of air temperature (maximum and minimum) and weekly totals of precipitation/sunshine hours are depicted. The phenological stages of some important crops have also been worked out. Badrul Hasan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/44 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/44 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:14:52 PDT We have written a number of articles on various aspects of weather characterization and forecast verification under temperate environments of Jammu and Kashmir (India). We have also touched on some of the approaches that might help in solving climatically triggered problems (Hasan and Kanth 1997). Fortunately, we were lucky enough to make significant progress in some (if not all) of the approaches. The present article focuses on an analysis of rainfall/ precipitation in this state of the Indian Union under different agroclimatic zones, with an update on forecast verification analysis of temperate Kashmir (India) during 1997-98. India is classified into agroclimatic zones or major agro-ecological regions (Figures 1 and 2). By definition, an agroclimatic zone is a land unit, in terms of major climate and growing period, that is climatically suitable for a certain range of crops and cultivars (FAO, 1983). An ecological region is characterized by distinct ecological responses to macroclimate as expressed in vegetation and reflected in soils, fauna, and aquatic systems. Several attempts have been made to classify our land area into climatic regions or zones, and these are well documented (Sehgal et al., 1992). The important point is the degree of recognition that has been given to these various approaches and their use in promoting the objectives of effective agriculture, macrolevel land use planning, and effective transfer of agrotechnology. Two approaches seem to meet these objectives--the National Agricultural Research Project (NARP) approach (Figure 1) and the recent Agro-Ecological Region approach (Figure 2). In the NARP approach, state universities were advised to divide each zone/state into subzones; accordingly, 129 subzones were delineated for India, based primarily on rainfall, existing cropping patterns, and administrative units. The Jammu and Kashmir state was thus divided into 4 zones (Figure 1). In the agro-ecological region-based approach, recognition was given to the climatic conditions, length of growing period, land form, and soils (Sehgal et al., 1992) (Figure 2). Thus India has been divided into 20 agro-ecoregions. The Jammu and Kashmir state comprises 3 regions, as depicted in Figure 2. The crop distribution in the state is shown in Figure 3. Badrul Hasan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/43 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/43 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:11:56 PDT Out of a total cropped area of 178 m ha, India has 59 m ha of irrigated cropland. The remaining 119 m ha is rainfed. Crop production under rainfed conditions either occurs during the rainy season or depends on conserved or residual soil moisture. In temperate countries, the economy largely depends on production of goods and services that are less affected by the variabilities of weather. Although India receives adequate amounts of rainfall annually through the four different types of weather phenomena--southwest monsoon (74%), northeast monsoon (3%), pre-monsoon (13%), and post-monsoon (10%)--the distribution in time and space is erratic, resulting in a limitation on the length of crop-growing periods (LGP) or the occurrence of floods. The temperate environment of Kashmir consists mainly of two crop growing seasons extending from May to October (summer) and November to April (winter). Rice, maize, cowpea, and beans are some of the important summer crops, while rapeseed, berseem, oats, and wheat are grown as winter crops. Under the semiarid conditions of Rajasthan, some drought-resistant crops like pearl millet, cowpea, guar, and foxtail grass are cultivated during the summer monsoon season (June to September), while the ensuing winter season up to February experiences various degrees of moisture stress. Crops grown in this winter season are mostly irrigated. This season is followed by a third one, with hot and dry weather (February to June). Badrul Hasan http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/42 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/42 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:09:10 PDT One of the negative features of Poland's climate is the periodic occurrence of atmospheric droughts. The most frequent source of this phenomenon is the occurrence of long-term (sometimes lasting several weeks) rainless periods. The occurrence of these periods is connected with the persistence of a stationary east European high that joins with the Azores anticyclone via central Europe. In such situations, with the accompanying lack or insufficiency of atmospheric precipitation, a drought begins to develop gradually. First, a soil drought appears, followed by hydrologic drought. During a hydrologic drought, a decrease in the ground water flow into surface waters is observed, among other phenomena. This results in the reduction of water flow in rivers. During such periods, a significant drop in the level of underground waters, as well as drying of some springs and small water courses, is observed. In its initial phase of development, a drought exerts its first negative effects on crops. Intensification of this phenomenon also causes disturbances in other sectors of the national economy. Droughts and their negative results do not pose the same threat to all areas of Poland, although in general the influence of droughts is stronger here than in the majority of central European countries. This situation is the result of a combination of natural and historic factors. One of the areas of interest of the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) is continuous monitoring and assessment of the course of meteorological and hydrological phenomena occurring in all areas of Poland. When preparing an analysis of the course of successive periods of drought spells, specialists from the IMGW branch in Poznan noticed the absence of similar studies of this phenomenon in Polish literature. In an attempt to fill this gap, they catalogued all droughts that occurred in Poland from 1951 to 1990. The research methods adopted in this study, and also the general characteristics of droughts in Poland, are summarized in this article. R. Farat http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/41 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/41 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:05:26 PDT The incidence of both drought and flooding on the Vermont landscape within the same calendar year is not an uncommon occurrence. The year 1998 was no exception, in that the ice storm of January and statewide flooding of June/July finally gave way to drought conditions as the year drew to a close. These dry conditions continued into late June/early July 1999, when a series of convective and frontal systems brought steady rainfall amounts that were helpful in reducing the surface moisture deficits. Hydrologic deficits, however, still existed in mid-July. With the exception of the most severe events, which can span entire years (e.g., 1961-69, 1980-81, 1988-89 and 1995), droughts in Vermont tend to be a summer phenomenon. When they occur during the cooler time of the year (winter and spring), their impacts, intensity, and other characteristics are somewhat different from droughts that occur during the warmer months. In a climate that is best described as changeable, it is sometimes challenging to interpret climate signals from one season to the next. The dry conditions that have plagued the state since October 1998 have alternated with periods of above-average precipitation receipt. As such, the intensity and occurrence of drought among the state's three climatic divisions (Northeastern = 1; Western = 2; and Southeastern =3), as shown in Figure 1, have varied over the period of interest. The quest for determining the drought signal is even further complicated by the fact that the monthly time scale may be inappropriate for adequately describing the nature of dry conditions across Vermont during the cooler time of the year. Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/40 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/40 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:02:46 PDT From the time that the London Missionary Society first took Zimbabwean rainfall records at Hope Fountain in 1888, the worst droughts on record are the consecutive dry spells from 1911 to 1914, the 1946-47 drought, the 1960 drought, and the 1972-73 rainy season, which was the driest period of colonial Zimbabwe. The country also had serious food shortages in 1903, 1916, 1922, 1933, and 1942. Although the people of precolonial Zimbabwe experienced recurrent droughts, they generally had well-developed coping mechanisms that prevented high death tolls (Iliffe, 1990). Joshua Chigodora http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/39 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/39 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 11:01:09 PDT Considerable variation in moisture conditions, on both a spatial and temporal basis, occurred in the contiguous United States during 1996. A tenth or more of the country experienced severe to extreme short-term (i.e., monthly) precipitation deficits during nearly half of the months (Figure 1), but in many months there were also large areas of excessive precipitation, which resulted in overall national conditions averaging near normal to wetter than normal (again, see Figure 1). From a national perspective, long-term drought peaked at mid-year (Figure 2), when severe drought plagued the South and Southwest. William O. Brown http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/38 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/38 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:58:48 PDT Contents: IUGG-99 XXII General Assembly - Inter-Association Symposium on Geophysical Hazards: Risk Assessment, Mitigation and Warning Systems 1999 National Disaster Medical System Conference International Conference on Integrated Drought Management--Lessons for Sub-Saharan Africa 4th International Congress on Energy, Environment and Technological Innovation http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/37 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/37 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:57:12 PDT Contents: Disaster Management Workshops National Workshop on Dynamic Crop Simulation Modeling International Conference on Integrated Drought Management 15th Annual Conference on Contaminated Soils 2000 National Disaster Medical System Conference http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/36 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/36 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:57:10 PDT Contents: Western Drought Coordination Council Products Available http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/35 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/35 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:54:06 PDT Contents: Regenerative Agriculture for the 21st Century 4th International Symposium on Environmental Geotechnology and Global Sustainable Development - Call for Abstracts http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/34 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/34 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:50:35 PDT Contents: International Symposium on High Altitude and Sensitive Ecological Environmental Geotechnology 5th International Symposium on Environmental Geotechnology and Global Sustainable Development 10th Global Warming International Conference & Expo (GW10) New Book http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/33 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/33 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:48:15 PDT Contents: Local Authorities Confronting Disasters and Emergencies-Third International Conference 1997 National Conference on Delivering Health and Medical Services in Catastrophic Disasters Book: Policy Making in an Era of Global Environmental Change http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/32 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/32 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:45:13 PDT Contents: Hazards and Sustainability: Contemporary Issues in Risk Management Hazards-98: Seventh International Symposium on Natural and Man-made Hazards Water: A Looming Crisis? International Conference on World Water Resources at the Beginning of the 21st Century Disaster Forum '98 National Conference on Lifesaving Intervention New Book: Reaching the Unreached: Challenges for the 21st Century http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/31 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/31 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:42:00 PDT Studies suggest there is a decreasing trend in precipitation in both north and south Bulgaria because of precipitation deficiencies in the 1940s and since the 1970s. Bulgaria has experienced several summer drought episodes during the last century, most notably in the 1940s and 1980s. There has been a decreasing trend in precipitation during the potential crop-growing season since the end of the 1970s, and the number of 10-day dry spells during this season has increased since the beginning of the 1970s. In the course of the last 3 decades, there was a decreasing trend in precipitation during the non-growing season below a base of 5°-10°C. There was also a tendency toward more precipitation deficit periods during the actual growing season of spring crops (from sowing to full maturity). A large deficiency in precipitation was observed during the summer of 1992. The 1992 drought persisted through 1993. In fact, from 1984 to 1993, the country experienced more than 5 years of drought conditions of various intensities, depending on location. There is no doubt that climate in Bulgaria has become drier in recent years. Nikola Slavov http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/30 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/30 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 10:37:37 PDT One of the main climatological characteristics of the region of Murcia (11,300 km2), located almost entirely in the Segura Basin (in southeast Spain), is the great temporal and spatial irregularity of its precipitation. Average annual precipitation values range between 200 and 500 mm, and coefficients of variation (CV) are high, with some values about 50%. It is a semiarid region (including a small arid area), and agriculture plays a major role in its economy. Because of this, drought is one characteristic of the region's climate that has far-reaching consequences, from unemployment to social conflicts. It is important to define drought and identify appropriate indicators for the region of Murcia as part of a drought watch system. This system will define the temporal and spatial limits of drought conditions. It would help policy makers and government officials establish policies for the provision of aid to farmers and cattlemen, as in Australia (White and O'Meagher, 1995). Because of the wide range of drought impacts, there are many definitions of this phenomenon. However, one characteristic seems common to all of them: drought is caused by a deficiency in precipitation for a fairly long period of time. For simplicity, and keeping in mind that precipitation is, without doubt, the most important variable in the process, the watch system developed for the region of Murcia uses only this variable at the moment, establishing a comparison with a climatological reference (1961- 90) that we consider "normal." Ramon Garrido Abenza http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/29 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/29 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:17:57 PDT We recently surveyed some of the drought-affected areas (Figure 1) in the Indian arid region in a publication entitled "Strategy to Combat Drought and Famine in the Indian Arid Zone." This article is a summary of the report. The present drought in the arid and semiarid regions of India is due to the cumulative effect of inadequate rainfall during 1997-99. Twelve states in India are in the grip of severe drought, with Rajasthan, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, and Madhya Pradesh (Table 1) being the most affected. The Indian arid zone encompasses 32 million ha and is highly prone to droughts and famines. During the 20th century, the region experienced agricultural drought an average of once every two or three years (Table 2). Often droughts persist continuously for 3 to 6 years, such as the droughts of 1903-05, 1957-60, 1966-71, 1984-87, and 1997-99. When the monsoon rains do not occur, the region is totally dependent on buffer stocks for food and fodder to sustain its 19.8 million people and 28 million livestock. Migration in search of fodder, food, work, and water is a common feature, causing hardships for desert dwellers, livestock casualties, and famines during extreme drought situations. Pratap Narain http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/28 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/28 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:14:13 PDT Arid ecosystems constitute an important part of the world's dry climates. The Indian arid zone is characterized by a harsh and fragile system, which influences the productivity (both quantitative and qualitative) and socioeconomic status of the inhabitants. The study discussed in this article was conducted in the Bikaner region, which is one of the most drought-prone districts of Rajasthan (Figure 1). Annual rainfall in the district is 268 mm, of which 85% occurs during the southwest summer monsoon (July-September). The region is known to experience extreme variations in diurnal and seasonal temperatures and high wind velocity, particularly during summers, associated with high evaporative atmospheric demands. Skies tend to be clear (cloud free) in these regions throughout most of the year. Soils of the Bikaner region are characteristically light and sandy, with a high infiltration rate and <100 mm field capacity, and are prone to wind erosion. Cultivation of crops is a challenging task under prevailing hostile atmospheric situations and soil limitations. Pratap Narain http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/27 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/27 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:11:23 PDT The privatization of the water industry in 1989 heralded a new era in water management in England and Wales, but it also coincided with the beginning of a period of volatile climatic patterns that have served to strongly underline a continuing vulnerability to unusual weather patterns. Following the very protracted drought that lasted until late 1992 in parts of eastern England, the resilience of water supply arrangements in the United Kingdom was again severely tested during a remarkably dry five-month spell beginning in the early spring of 1995. The water resources outlook at the beginning of this period was exceptionally healthy--reservoirs were at capacity and ground water levels were close to seasonal maxima following the wettest 30-month sequence in the entire British rainfall series, which extends back to 1869. However, the subsequent transformation in hydrological conditions has few, if any, modern parallels. For much of the spring and most of the summer, a northward extension of the Azores high pressure cell served to deflect most rain-bearing frontal systems and bring subtropical air masses across the British Isles. Rainfall deficiencies built up quickly and a heat wave throughout much of July and August produced a marked intensification in drought conditions. August rainfall totals were less than 15% of average over wide areas, and the mean temperature established the month as the second warmest in the 337-year Central England Temperature series. Terry Marsh http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/26 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/26 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:08:48 PDT The normal total rainfall for the summer rainfall areas in South Africa is 664 mm. Since 1963, the country has recorded 16 seasons below normal and 14 above normal. Since the 1982-83 season, 7 seasons have been below normal and 4 have been above normal. Of these last 11 years, two rainy seasons recorded less than 75% of normal rainfall, which is a coarse estimation of severe drought. These seasons were 1982-83, when an average total of only 408 mm was measured, and 1992-93, when the average total was 484 mm. Although 1991-92 has been called the worst drought this century, for the stations used in this survey, the average total was 510 mm, or about 77% of normal. The 1981-82 and 1982-83 as well as 1991-92 and 1992-93 seasons were close to being only 75% of normal rainfall. These are the only occasions in the last 70 years that two consecutive summer rainy seasons have had such seriously inadequate rainfall. Fortunately, the geographical and temporal distribution of rainfall varies seasonally, and in 1992-93, adequate rain fell on the main summer cropping areas of South Africa to save the country from experiencing two disastrous crop failures. The greatest impacts of these two very dry seasons were the low levels of surface water stored in dams on which most industrial and urban areas depend and low ground water reserves for boreholes, which support most irrigation and many rural communities. In addition, the sugar industry in Natal and Zululand on the normally wet east coast has been seriously damaged and many sugar mills have closed. Farming and rural communities with accumulated capital losses and mounting debt cannot hope to recover as quickly as the grazing grasses did following good rains in October and November 1993. M. V. Laing http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/25 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/25 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:07:11 PDT Drought is defined as inadequate soil moisture to support crop growth and normal yield. The degree of drought for a given location depends on the crop, rainfall and its distribution, soil type, and various management practices. Drought occurs frequently in Tamilnadu--some part of the state experiences drought every year. The state of Tamilnadu is located in the southernmost tip of peninsular India. It lies between 8°5" and 13°35" latitude north and 76°15" and 80°20" longitude east, covering an area of 0.13 million km2 and including a long coastline (about 1,000 km). The mean annual rainfall is 945 mm, with 45 rainy days. The state benefits from northeast monsoon rains (October- December), unlike other parts of India, where southwest monsoons (June- September) bring more rain. In Tamilnadu, 85% of the total area benefits from the northeast monsoon; only 15% benefits from the southwest monsoon. Potential evaporation always exceeds rainfall in most (8-10) months each year. The severity of drought depends on the type of soil prevalent in a region. It was once thought that farmers, through generations of experience, could learn to live with the limitations of their local climatic conditions through trial and error. That is no longer true. Modern agriculture requires precise information on rainfall and on flood- and drought-prone areas. It is now clear that to obtain maximum yields, a proper knowledge of agroclimatic conditions is necessary to plan the most effective cropping system for different areas. With this idea in mind, the state of Tamilnadu has been classified into drought-prone areas, based on precipitation, potential evaporation, and soil type, so that a suitable crop plan may be developed for each area. R. Kulandaivelu http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/24 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/24 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:06:50 PDT It has now been recognized that the single most important key to the earth's year-to-year climate variability is the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. El Niño episodes directly affect the climate of at least half the planet and in many instances result in heavy loss of life and resources. The global impacts of El Niño events have been summarized in a review article by Bigg (1990), while the role of ENSO in Indian monsoon rainfall variability is given in Krishna Kumar et al. (1995). During the ENSO warm/ cold extremes--i.e., El Niño/La Niña events--the majority of the episodes induce below/above-normal rainfall over India. However, there have been deficient monsoons over India apart from these El Niño episodes (Das, 1991). Hence this article investigates the intensity of the droughts (i.e., deficient monsoons) over India due to El Niño and non-El Niño forcings. Similarly, the intensity of floods (ie., excess monsoons) is also examined with respect to the La Niña/non-La Niña episodes. R. H. Kripalani http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/23 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/23 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:02:42 PDT In Turkey, desertification has been taking place in areas of low rainfall and minimal vegetative cover. In particular, the central, eastern, and southeastern parts of the country are vulnerable to desertification because of erosion, deforestation, and degradation of vegetative cover. Rivers of those regions are characterized by very high sediment yields. Nearly 60% of the country's soils are subjected to severe erosion and approximately 450 million tons of sediment are carried to rivers each year. Meanwhile, wind erosion has been a very effective desertification process in central and southeastern parts of the country, where annual rainfall varies around 400-500 mm/year. Most central and southeastern parts of Turkey are considered semiarid, and some parts of the Central Anatolia region around Tuz Lake exhibit arid conditions, with 300 mm/year rainfall. This study presents a potential use of remote sensing for monitoring desertification with AVHRR-derived NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data. NOAA series operational meteorological satellites provide data that can be used for various earth observation applications, such as vegetation indexes, sea surface temperatures, hydrologic applications, and natural disasters. The Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHHR) is a multichannel scanning radiometer carried by the NOAA Polar Orbiter satellite series. It is a 5-channel radiometer, using a spinning mirror to scan across 111 degrees for a ground swath of 2,700 km, with an IFOV at a nadir of 1.1 km. Because of the temporal characteristics of AVHHR, it is possible to obtain valuable information for vegetation monitoring studies and other environment-linked applications (Gutman, 1991). Ali Umran Komuscu http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/22 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/22 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 07:01:10 PDT Drought commonly is perceived to be a prolonged period with a significant reduction in precipitation. Namias (1985) argues that drought is associated with persistent or persistently recurring atmospheric circulation patterns. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has a major role in controlling European climate and appears to exert a strong influence in modulating North Atlantic ecosystems. During the positive phases of NAO, the North Atlantic westerlies, which provide much of the atmospheric moisture to north Africa and Europe, shift northward. This, in turn, results in drier conditions over southern Europe, the Mediterranean Sea, and northern Africa (Hurrell, 1995; Hurrell and Van Loon, 1997). Turkey is situated in the Mediterranean macroclimatic region of the subtropical zone. Because of its complex topographic features and its proximity to water, and because it is a transition zone for different pressure systems and air masses originating from polar and tropical zones, several climatic subregions appear to be dominant over the country. The amount and distribution of rainfall in the coastal areas is determined by troughs and frontal- type mid-latitude cyclones that are associated with the prevailing upper-level westerly flows. The Mediterranean Sea acts as a primary source for moist air masses that produce high rainfall over the windward slopes of the coastal mountain ranges. Frontal Mediterranean cyclones associated with the southwesterly air flows create favorable conditions for heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in the southern and western coastal parts of the country in late autumn and early winter. Annual average rainfall in Turkey is around 630 mm, with 67% of it occurring during the winter and spring, when the eastern Mediterranean basin and Balkans are influenced by eastward propagating mid-latitude cyclones and Mediterranean depressions (Türkes, 1996). Ali Umran Komuscu http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/21 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/21 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 06:56:04 PDT Bulgaria is situated on the Balkan Peninsula. Its northern frontier is the lower part of the Danube. The Balkan range, with its zonal situation, is part of a natural climatic frontier, dividing Bulgaria into two parts--north and south. One of the main features of the climate in the Danube Plain (northern Bulgaria) is insufficient precipitation--a tendency toward dryness and frequent droughts. The annual amount of precipitation is 500-600 mm. The highest monthly values are measured in June (in some places in May), with 55-75 mm. February (in some places, March) is the driest month. Absence of precipitation can occur in any month, but the probability of this happening in May and June is very low. At the same time, monthly precipitation can exceed 100 mm in any month; in the summer it can even exceed 250-300 mm. The radiation balance is about 50 Kkal.sm-2. In this study, Budyko's dryness ratio (1985) is used to define land moistening. Ekaterina Koleva http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/20 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/20 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 06:53:24 PDT Drought is the leading natural disaster in the United States in terms of monetary losses. The National Research Council (1995) estimates that drought costs the United States an average of $6-8 billion per year. Because of these losses and the great effects of drought on many citizens' quality of life, drought planning is gaining widespread support in the United States. However, U.S. drought planning within the agricultural sector has historically focused on response measures that help producers, primarily farmers, deal with and recover from drought. It has been found that these often ad-hoc drought responses are very expensive and do little to reduce ongoing drought vulnerability (Wilhite, 1997). Subsequently, current national drought planning efforts, as discussed in Preparing for Drought in the 21st Century (National Drought Policy Commission, 2000), have shifted to an emphasis on drought mitigation programs--that is, modifying operations before a drought strikes in order to reduce the impending negative impacts. In terms of agricultural drought planning, these programs necessitate increased communication between agricultural producers, private businesses, and government planners. Since its inception in 1995, the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) has striven to promote drought mitigation planning and increase the communication between federal, state, and local drought planners. Essential in these endeavors is input from agricultural producers that deal with drought at the "ground level." Therefore, a study was undertaken to gain insight into agricultural producers' perceptions of current drought issues, which yielded valuable information on several topics, including perceptions of drought vulnerability, the use of climate forecast information, the implementation of drought mitigation measures, and the roles of external groups in drought planning. Cody L. Knutson http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/19 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/19 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 06:48:59 PDT New Zealand, lying in the South Pacific Ocean approximately 1,200 miles east of Australia, is subject to recurring droughts. Its two main islands are long and narrow, with high mountain ranges and hill country bisecting them from north to south. The predominant westerly winds, along with the mountain ranges and hill country, produce a marked orographic effect. Thus, the western side of the country, in general, records significantly higher annual average rainfall totals than does land on the eastern side. The country has experienced a number of severe droughts throughout its history, especially in the east, where a number of extended periods of low rainfall have severely affected pastoral agriculture (historically New Zealand's major industry). Droughts that extend across autumn and/or spring are generally the most severe in terms of their effects on grass production at crucial stages of the growing season. Recent research on farmers' responses to drought suggests that many farmers tend to "farm for droughts," by ensuring that stock numbers are low throughout the summer months, which are generally expected to be dry (Keen, 1995). Heather J. Keen http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/18 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/18 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 06:46:43 PDT The number of applications using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) around the world continues to increase (e.g., Agnew, pp. 6-12 of this newsletter, and Komuscu 1999). However, there are relatively few publications explaining the SPI, and occasional misconceptions about the index have occurred. When the SPI was first developed by McKee et al. (1993, 1995), it was meant to address some of the limitations that exist within the Palmer Drought Index (PDI). These first publications were relatively simple introductions of the SPI to the scientific community, appearing in the Proceedings of the Eighth and Ninth Applied Climatology Conferences, respectively, sponsored by the American Meteorological Society. In both cases, the authors define the SPI as the "difference of precipitation from the mean...divided by the standard deviation." It is this equation, given by Komuscu (1999) and repeated by Agnew, that causes confusion about the SPI. Michael J. Hayes http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/17 http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/droughtnetnews/17 Tue, 02 Sep 2008 06:44:33 PDT The importance of prevention and planning in drought mitigation was the impetus for the Central and Eastern European Workshop on Drought Mitigation, held April 12-15, 2000, in Budapest-Felsoőgöd, Hungary. The workshop was organized and sponsored by several Hungarian agencies: the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development; Ministry for Environment; Ministry of Transport, Communication and Water Management; Research and Development Division of the Ministry of Education; and Hungarian Meteorological Service. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), World Meteorological Organization (WMO), European Commission Joint Research Centre (EC JRC-ISPRA), European Regional Working Group of the International Commission on Irrigation and Drainage (ERWG ICID), and the International Drought Information Center and National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, USA, also provided support. Seven country reports on the status of national drought mitigation strategies in central and eastern European (CEE) countries and twenty-one scientific and technical papers were presented and discussed. U.S. scientists discussed drought mitigation practices used in the United States that might also be followed in Europe. Although some steps have been taken in several CEE countries toward the establishment of national drought mitigation strategies, participants noted that further efforts are necessary. Their recommendations are republished below.