Bureau of Business Research


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The Leading Economic Indicator, July 20, 2012


Copyright 2012 Bureau of Business Research, University of Nebraska.


The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) declined by 1.11% during June 2012. The decline in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, is the second in a row, signaling weakness in the Nebraska economy during the fall and winter of 2012. In particular, while the Nebraska economy is expected to grow this summer, growth will slow significantly beginning in the fall. A primary reason for the decline in the LEI-N was a rapid increase in the value of the U.S. dollar during June. The rising U.S. dollar will limit export activity by Nebraska farms and factories. Initial unemployment claims also rose sharply in June portending a weakening job market in Nebraska. Among other indicator components, business expectations were positive in June according to the Survey of Nebraska Business. The three other indicators components, manufacturing hours, building permits and airline passenger counts, changed very little between May and June.

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