Bureau of Business Research


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The Leading Economic Indicator, October 19, 2012


Copyright 2012 Bureau of Business Research, University of Nebraska.


The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) grew by just 0.09% during September 2012. The increase in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, was quite weak, but did follow two months of solid increase in July and August. The continued expansion of the LEI-N, however slight, confirms that the Nebraska economy will grow moderately at the end of 2012 and early 2013. A primary reason for the slight improvement in the LEI-N was a solid increase in single-family building permits, suggesting continued improvement in the Nebraska housing market. A declining U.S. dollar also was a positive indicator, suggesting future growth in Nebraska export activity. But, other components of the LEI-N declined during September. Airline passenger counts and manufacturing hours both declined during the month. Initial unemployment claims rose in Nebraska. Finally, respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business indicated that both sales and employment would decline moderstly in their business over the next sixth months.

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