Date of this Version
The Leading Economic Indicator, November 15, 2013
The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) declined by 0.08% during October 2013. The decrease in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, follows two months of steady expansion. Taking these three months together, the Nebraska economy is expected to expand at a moderate rate in the initial months of 2014. During October, two components of the indicator expanded and four declined. Single-family building permits rose on a seasonally adjusted basis. Exchange rate trends also were positive. The value of the U.S. dollar declined during October, which is positive development for the state’s exporting businesses. Among declining components, business expectations fell. In particular, respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business predicted a decline in sales at their business over the next six month. This drop in confidence could reflect a recent, sharp decline in crop prices as well as uncertainty created by the federal government shutdown in October. Many respondents to the survey completed their questionnaire during the shutdown. Initial unemployment claims also rose in Nebraska during October, and there was a small decline in both manufacturing hours and airline passenger counts.