Bureau of Business Research


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The Leading Economic Indicator, December 21, 2012


Copyright 2012 Bureau of Business Research, University of Nebraska.


The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) dropped modestly, declining by 0.18%, during November 2012. The decline in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the state six months in the future, followed four months of increase. The modest decline in the LEI-N is not sufficient to reverse the growth trend seen in the previous four months. The Nebraska economy is expected to expand moderately in December 2012 and the first half of 2013. Looking at individual components of the LEI-N, only one component, the number of single-family building permits, increased in November. This permit growth has been a bright spot for the Nebraska economy during much of 2012. The contributions from the other five components were negative. Manufacturing hours and airline passengers showed a modest decline. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose. The value of the U.S. dollar rose during November, which may reduce export activity over the next six months. Finally, respondents to the Survey of Nebraska Business reported negative expectations for business sales over the next six months.

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