Impacts of Temperature and Carbon Dioxide on Boro Rice Production

Authors

Sabiha Ferdous, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow

First Advisor

Md. Shahadat Hossen

Second Advisor

Md. Azharul Islam

Date of this Version

3-2022

Document Type

Thesis

Citation

A thesis submitted to the Department of Environmental Science Faculty of Agriculture, Bangladesh Agricultural University, Mymensingh in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Environmental Science

Under the supervision of Professors Md. Shahadat Hossen and Md. Azharul Islam

Examination Roll No. 20221303, Registration No.: 43618, Session: 2014-2015, Semester: Winter (October 2021-March 2022)

Comments

Copyright 2022, Sabiha Ferdous. Used by permission

Abstract

There are different anticipated impacts of climate change (CC) on agriculture all over the world. Bangladesh as a developing country has potential vulnerability and negative impacts on CC. This change in meteorological parameters creates negative impacts on agricultural production which is a threat to food security and economic development. The country has recently achieved food security in rice which is mainly due to increased yields and area coverage of irrigated dry season (Boro) rice over the last decades. It is necessary to predict the future Boro rice production in accordance with CC as well as take supplementary actions to ensure the sustainability of Bangladesh agriculture. In this study, field experiment data were used as inputs in APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) model i.e., to parameterize, calibrate and validate the model and assessed the climate change impacts using the validated model with projected future climate data. For sensitivity analysis, historical climate data (1981 to 2013), increased temperature (T) (2⁰ C and 3⁰ C) and CO₂ levels (50 ppm and 100 ppm) were used. The simulated result indicated that the increased T_max and T_min would significantly affect Boro rice yield in the future. For instance, 3⁰C increased T with long-term historical climate data has shown lower predicted yield then 2⁰C increased T. Furthermore, in combined effects, 2⁰ C increased T group, CO₂ concentration increase for 50 ppm, and 100 ppm concentration showed the highest predicted average yield. Therefore, an increased CO₂ level has a positive impact on rice yield, but it does not always compensate for the yield loss due to increased temperature at the same time. The projected IPCC scenarios considering increased CO₂ concentration and increased temperature rice yield reduced significantly and showed greater variability for all future scenarios except 2030. Possible adaptation measures can be taken from these findings and APSIM modeling system could be a useful tool for assessing possible adaptation options on management practices for different varieties rice cultivation.

Advisors: Md. Shahadat Hossen and Md. Azharul Islam