Date of this Version
The identity, geographical distribution, and host range of codling moth is reviewed, and the evidence for sweet cherry being a host is critically analyzed. A model is described which assesses the risk of codling moth being spread through international trade in sweet cherries, as exemplified by exports from, respectively, New Zealand and USA to Japan in winter and summer. The model is based on the recorded incidence of codling moth in cherries and its estimated probability of survival during storage, transport to, and arrival in Japan, using data from specific studies and from wider knowledge of the phenology, life history, and biology of the species. There is unambiguous experimental evidence, supported by field observations, that sweet cherry is not a host of codling moth. It is concluded that the risk of codling moth establishing in an overseas country such as Japan through the cherry trade is extremely low and that specific quarantine measures to prevent the introduction of this insect by this route are not technically justified.