Date of this Version
Vol. 7: 11-20, 1996 11-20
A stochastic climatological model is presented to describe the space-time behavior of daily global solar radiation measured by pyranometeres. Due to the differently of describing daily global radiation by common probability distributions, a non-parametric technique , the Abramson kernel estimator, is used. The space-time climatological model of daily global radiation consists of a transformed multivariate auto-regressive (AR) process conditioned on large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The transformation is necessary to establish a relationship between the probability distribution of global radiation and a normal variable used in AR model. In order to check the stochastic model a simulation study was performed for 7 location in Nebraska, USA. Although a split sampling approach could not be used due to the relatively small sample size the simulated probability distributions reproduced the empirical distributions quite correctly. Also, the space-time dependency was maintained. The methodology may be a useful too to estimate local/regional radiation under climate change.