Phenological Flexibility in Nesting Grassland Birds Over a Half Century Informs Timing of Management

Authors

• Kristin S. Ellis, Northern Prairie Research Center, US Geological Survey
• Michael J. Anteau, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, US Geological Survey
• Lawrence D. Igl, Retired, Northern Prairie Wildlife Reserach Center, US Geological Survey
• Garrett J. MacDonald, Northern Prairie Wildlife Reserch Center, US Geological Survey
• Neal D. Niemuth, Retired, Habitat and Population Evaluation Team, US Fish & Wildlife Service
• Aaron T. Pearse, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, US Geological Survey
• Jill A. Shaffer, Retired, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, US Geological Survey
• Christine A. Ribic, Retired, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Madison - Madison WI
• Josh L. Vest, Prairie Pothole Joint Venture, US Fish and Wildlife Services
• Masanori Abe, Western Riverside County, MSHCP Biological Monitoring, Riverside CA
• Daniel S. Ackerman, Meadowlark Environmental LLC, Mandan ND
• Marissa A. Ahlering, The Nature Conservancy
• Johanna N. Alpert, Natural Resources Institute, University of Manitoba
• Anahit Amiri, School of Biological Sciences, Southern Illinois University
• Kent Andersson, Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University
• Jacqueline K. Augustine, Audobon of Kansas
• Kristel K. Bakker, College of Arts and Sciences, South Dakota State University, Madison, SD
• Jeffrey L. Beck, Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Wyoming, Cheyenne WY
• Adam C. Behney, Colorado Parks and Widlife
• Jacy S. Bernath-Plaisted, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison WI
• Todd R. Bogenschutz, Iowa Department of Natural Resouces, Boone IA
• Eric K. Bollinger, Department of Biological Science, Eastern Illinois University, Charleston IL
• Lauren E. Bortolotti, Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, Ducks Unlimited Canada
• Andy J. Boyce, Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute
• Jeffrey D. Brawn, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, IL
• Fred C. Bryant, Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville TX
• Andrew J. Campomizzi, Bird Ecology and Conservation Ontario, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
• Jay D. Carlisle, Intermountain Bird Observatory, Boise State University, Boise ID
• J Matthew Carroll, Department of Biological Sciences, Murray State University, Murray KY
• Rachel Carroll, Jones College of Science, Engineering and Technology, Murray State University, Murray KY
• John P. Carroll, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln NE
• Justin R. Clarke, School of Natural Resources, North Dakota State University, Fargo ND
• Michael R. Conover, Wildland Resources Department, Utah State University, Logan, UT
• Reesa Y. Conrey, Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Fort Collins, CO
• Jaime J. Coon, Department of Biology, Earlham College, Richmond IN
• Kyle A. Cutting, Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge, US Fish and Wildlife Service
• Stephen K. Davis, Canadian Wildlife Service, Regina, Saskatchewan, Canada
• Dawn M. Davis, US Fish and Wildlife Service
• Duane R. Diefenbach, Pennsylvania Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Unit, Pennsylvania Sate University, University Park, PA
• Jonathan B. Dinkins, Department of Animal and Rangeland Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR
• R Andrew Dreelin, Smithsonian's National Zoo and Conservation Biology Institute
• Victoria J. Dreitz, Avian Science Center, University of Montana, Missoula MT
• Courtney J. Duchardt, School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Camp Verde AZ
• Michael W. Eichholz, School of Biological Science, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale IL
• Susan N. Ellis-Felege, Department of Biology, University of North Dakota. Grand Forks ND
• Kevin S. Ellison, American Bird Conservancy, Bozeman MT
• Bradley C. Fedy, School of Environment, Resources and Sustainability, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada
• Samantha D. Fino, South Dakota State University
• Robert J. Fletcher Jr, Department of Zoology, Conservation Research institute, University of Cambridge, Cambridge UK
• Dillon T. Fogarty, School of Natural Resources, North Dakota State University, Fargo ND
• Samuel D. Fuhlendorf, Department of Natural Resource Ecology and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK
• Pamela R. Garrettson, US Fish and Wildlife Service
• Robert J. Gates, School of Environment and Natural Resources, The Ohio State Universtiy, Columbus, OH
• Erin L. Gelling, Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY
• James J. Giacomo, American Bird Conservancy, Durand, IL
• Alex Glass, Lees-McRai College, Banner Elk, NC
• Cheri L. Gratto-Trevor, Science and Technology Branch, Environment and Climate Change Canda, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
• Ryan D. Haffele, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Wisconsin Rapids, WI
• Christian A. Hagen, Department of Fisheries, Wildlife, and Conservation Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis OR
• Vanessa B. Harriman, Institute for Wetland and Waterfowl Research, Ducks Unlimited Canada Stonewall, Manitoba Canada
• Samuel W H Harryman, Texas Parks & Wildlife Department, Lubbock TX
• David A. Haukos, Kansas Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, US Geological Survey, Manhattan, KS
• Robert T. Haynam, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT
• Heather A. Herakovich, National Great Rivers Research and Education Center, East Alton, IL
• James R. Herkert, Retired, Illinois Endangered Species Protection Board, Springfield, IL
• Fidel Hernandez, Caeser Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville, TX
• Jason M. Hill, Vermont Center for Ecostudies, White River Junction, VT
• H Jeffrey Homan, Retired, National Wildlife Research Center, US Department of Agriculture, Bismarck, ND
• Torre J. Hovick, School of Natural Resources, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND
• Jonathan A. Jenks, South Dakota State University
• William E. Jensen, Emporia State University
• Aaron N. Johnston, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, US Geological Survey, Bozeman, MT
• Sydney-Marie Jones, University of Saskatchewan
• Carly S. Kelly, Western EcoSystem Techology Inc, Laramie WY
• Kaylan M. Kemink, Ducks Unlimited, Bismarck, ND
• Silka L F Kempema, South Dakota Department of Game, Fish, and Parks, Pierre SD
• Dylan C. Kesler, The Institute for Bird Populations, San Diego CA
• Christopher P. Kirol, Kirol Applied Ecological Research, Sheridan WY
• Robert W. Klaver, Iowa Coooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, US Geological Survey, Ames IA
• Page E. Klug, National Wildlife Research Center, USDA-APHIS-Wildlife Services, Fargo ND
• Jesse L. Kolar, North Dakota Game and Fish Department, Bismarck ND
• Nicola Koper, Faculty of Environment, University of Northern British Columbia, British Columbia Canada
• Kyle J. Kuechle, Ducks Unlimited Inc, Bismarck ND
• Jonathan D. Lautenbach, Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY
• Zoe M. Lebrun-Southcott, Bird Ecology and Conservation Ontario, Toronto, Canada
• David W. Londe, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Indiahoma, OK
• Scott R. Loss, Department of Natural Resource Ecoloyg and Management, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater OK
• Cullen M. Mackenzie, School of Biological Sciences, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale IL
• Patrick A. Magee, Department of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Western Colorado University, Gunnison CO
• Douglas L. Manzer, Alberta Conservation Association, Alberta Canada
• John P. McCarty, Department of Biology, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha NE
• Gywm McKee, Great Plains Wildlife Consulting Inc, Banner WY
• Ann E. McKellar, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Canada
• Lance B. McNew, Department of Animal and Range Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman MT
• James R. Miller, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Science, Umiversity of Illinois Urbana-Champaign, Urbana IL
• Megan C. Milligan, US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks AK
• Ashlee K. Minor, School of Biological Sciences, Southern Illimois University, Carbondale, IL
• Rocco J. Murano, South Dakota Department of Game, Fish, and Parks, Pierre SD
• Les D. Murray, Division of Science and Engineering, Penn State University - Abington, Abington, PA
• David E. Naugle, Franke College of Forestry and Conservation, University of Montana, Missoula MT
• Clayton K. Nielsen, Center for Wildlife Sustainability Research, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale IL
• Christopher J. Norment, Department of Environmental Science and Ecology, SUNY Brockport, Brockport NY
• Sarah B. Ogden, Bowman Consulting Group, Missoula MT
• Lindsay A. Parsons, South Dakota State University
• Brian D. Peer, Department of Biology, Stephen F Austin State University, Nacogdoches, TX
• Noah G. Perlut, School of Marine and Environmental Programs, University of New England, Biddeford, ME
• James C. Pittman, Ducks Unlimited Inc, Emporia KS
• Christopher D. Pollentier, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Wisconsin Rapids WI
• Larkin A. Powell, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln NE
• Aaron C. Pratt, George Miksch Sutton Avian Research Center, Bartlesville OK
• John P. Pulliam, Department of Animal and Range Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman MT
• Nancy M. Raginski, Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens GA
• Dan R. Reinking, George Miksch Sutton Avian Research Center, Bartlesville OK
• Kaitlyn M. Reintsma, Avian Science Center, University of Montana, Missoula MT
• Terry Z. Riley, North American Grouse Partnership, Fort Collins CO
• Kevin M. Ringelman, Department of Wildlife, Fish, and Conservation Biology, University of California Davis, Davis CA
• Joseph R. Robb, Big Oaks and Muscatatuck National Wildlife Refuge Complex, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Madison IN
• Scott K. Robinson, Florida Museum of Natural History and the University of Florida, Gainesville FL
• Andres N. Rosales, University of Saskatchewan
• Charlotte L. Roy, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Grand Rapids MN
• Kayla a. Ruth, Department of Animal and Rangeland Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis OR
• Brett K. Sandercock, Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, Trondheim Norway
• Kevin K. Sedivec, School of Natural Resource Sciences, North Dakota State University, Fargo ND
• Steve K. Sherrod, George Miksch Sutton Avian Research Center, Bartlesville OK
• Justin J. Shew, Center for Wildlife Sustainability Research, Southern Illinois University Carbondale IL
• Mason l. Sieges, Ducks Unlimited Inc Bismarck ND
• Jenny L. Sika, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Helena MT
• Susan K. Skagen, Retired, Fort Collins Science Center, US Geological Survey, Fort Collins CO
• Cassandra G. Skaggs, Louisiana State University AgCenter
• Joseph Smith, Avian Science Center, University of Montana, Missoula MT
• Jennifer A. Smith, Ceasar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingville, Kingsville TX
• Kurt D. Smith, Department of Zoology and Physiology, University of Wyoming, Laramie WY
• Alex J. Solem, South Dakota Department of Game, Fish, and Parks, Pierre SD
• Joshua D. Stafford, South Dakota Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, US Geological Survey, Brookings, SD
• Glenn E. Stauffer, Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, Wisconsin Rapids, WI
• Matthew D. Stephenson, Iowa State University
• Lee Sutcliffe, Natural Resource Institute, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg Manitoba Canada
• Amber E. Swicegood, Department of Animal and Range Sciences, Montana State University, Bozeman MT
• Jason Tack, Habitat and Preservation Evaluation Team, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Missoula MT
• Evan P. Tanner, Ceasar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville TX
• Catrina V. Terry, Ducks Unlimited Inc Bismarck ND
• Wendy P. Tori, Department of Biology, Earlham College, Richmond IN
• Ashley M. Unger, Caesar Kleberg Wildlife Research Institute, Texas A&M University-Kingsville, Kingsville TX
• Kelly R. VanBeek, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Madison WI
• William E. Vetter, Precision Wildlife Resources LLC, Gillette WY
• Jay A. VonBank, Delta Waterfowl Foundation, Bismarck, ND
• Brett L. Walker, Colorado Parks and Wildlife, Fort Collins CO
• Michael D. Whitson, Department of Natural Resources, Texas Tech University, Lubbock TX
• Maiken Winter, WissenLeben, Raisting, Germany
• Kimberly A. With, Department of Biology, Laboratory for Landscape and Conservation Ecology, Kansas State University, Manhattan KS
• Donald H. Wolfe, Retired, George Miksch Sutton Avian Research Center, Bartleswille, OK
• Amy A. Yakel Adams, Fort Collins Science Center, US Geological Survey, Fort Colllins, CO
• Benjamin Zuckerberg, Retired, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison WI

ORCID IDs

Kristin Ellis https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2759-3670

Michael Anteau https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5173-5870

Lawrence Igl https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0530-7266

Aaron Pearse https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6137-1556

Jill Shaffer https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3172-0708

Christine A Ribic https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2583-1778

Josh Vest https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9664-4502

Marissa Ahlering https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3913-428X

Anahit Amiri https://orcid.org/0009-0007-3853-7531

Kent Andersson https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6243-2752

Jacqueline Augustine https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9195-8799

Jeffrey Beck https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0236-7343

Adam Behney https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1076-7577

Jacy S Bernath-Plaisted https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4645-8132 

Todd Bogenschutx https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0512-9738

Laruen Bortolotti https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1505-8427

Andy Boyce https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3508-6599

Jeffrey Brawn https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5158-0055

Andrew J Campomizzi https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3941-0010

Jay Carlisle https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1919-7408

Justin R Clarke https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2768-1384

Michael Conover https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2289-9590

Jaime J Coon https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6342-4690

Stephen Davis https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2645-6316

Duane Difenbach  https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5111-1147

Johnathan Dinkins https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6421-0643

Andrew Dreelin https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2750-821X

Victoria Dreitz https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9383-2329

Courtney Duchardt https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9383-2329

Michael Eichholz https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4592-8809

Susan Ellis-Felege https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4534-0055

Bradley Fedy https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3933-4043

Robert Fletcher https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1717-5707

Dillon Fogarty https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2541-4245

Pamela Garrettson https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2308-9826

Erin Gelling https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3940-5545

James Giocomo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9230-2422

Kirsty Gurney https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8036-4725

Daivd Haukos https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5372-9960

Trapper Haynam https://orcid.org/0009-0005-3490-0423

Heather Herakovich https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8319-6800

James R Herkert https://orcid.org/0009-0002-2896-420X

Jason M Hill https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0830-7253

Torre Hovick https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9192-8805

William Jensen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9007-6628

Aaron Johnston https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4659-0504

Sydney-Marie Jones https://orcid.org/0009-0008-6584-0197

Carly Kelly https://orcid.org/0009-0001-8030-5984

Kaylan Kemink https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1404-0690

Chirs Kirol https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7723-8653

Robert Klaver https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3263-9701

Page E Klug https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0836-3901

Nicola Koper https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3576-9525

Kyle Kuechle https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4588-1775

David Londe https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8112-005X

Cullen Mackenzie https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3488-1750

Ann McKellar https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7032-3759

Lance McNew https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0006-7304

Megan C Milligan https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8466-7803

Ashlee Minor https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9911-9885

Les Murray https://orcid.org/0009-0002-4925-0484

David Naugle https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9286-9878

Christopher Pollentier https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4071-3561

Larkin Powell https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0570-4210

Nancy Raginski https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8007-5309

Kaitlyn Reintsma https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9528-4434

Kevin Ringelman https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0299-3432

Scott Robinson https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1321-4924

Andres N Rosales https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1207-2787

Charlotte Roy https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4691-3089

Kayla A Ruth https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6672-7657

Brett K Sandercock https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9240-0268

Joseph Smith https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5242-2761

Kurt Smith https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4981-2918

Joshus Stafford https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7590-8708

Matthew D Stephenson https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8702-8556

Amber Swicegood https://orcid.org/0009-0004-4584-516X

Evan Tanner https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0063-7004

Catrina Terry https://orcid.org/0009-0006-4205-4383

Ashley Tanner https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6376-5196

Brett L Walker https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1183-3449

Kimberly A With https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5570-1515

Benjamin Zuckerberg https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7412-4354

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

10-26-2026

Citation

Ellis, K. S., M. J. Anteau, L. D. Igl, et al. 2026. “ Phenological Flexibility in Nesting Grassland Birds Over a Half Century Informs Timing of Management.” Global Change Biology 32, no. 10: e71128. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.71128.    

Abstract

The timing of biological events for wildlife species reflects and influences ecological and evolutionary processes and helps guide management actions to meet conservation objectives. Climate change may cause phenological shifts across trophic levels and ecosystems, which can have broad ecological impacts. Shifts may also result in mistiming between management practices based on historical conditions and current biological events, reducing the effectiveness of natural resource management and conservation efforts. We analyzed nesting phenology patterns over recent decades across North America for 44 species of grassland-nesting birds, including waterfowl, upland gamebirds, shorebirds, and passerines, many of which have experienced precipitous population declines. Understanding nesting phenologies of these species is important to their conservation, as grassland management activities often conflict with reproductive periods leading to high nest and young mortality. We compiled a dataset of over 172,000 nest records spanning five decades and evaluated environmental factors influencing long-term shifts and short-term flexibility in nesting phenology. We found considerable variation in responses among species, with differences in both direction and magnitude of spatiotemporal effects on nest initiation dates. Notably, the community-level nesting season lengthened over time, but shifts exhibited spatial heterogeneity within this community of grassland birds. Nesting dates shifted asymmetrically across the breeding season with differential changes in early, peak, and late nesting dates whereas long-term changes were mediated by weather and geographic gradients. For example, nest initiation was earlier in warmer and wetter years. By applying a quantile-based analysis, we provide estimates of the full nesting period that could serve as a flexible tool for scheduling monitoring efforts and balancing management and human activities with periods of reduced nesting activity. Our collaborative effort illustrates the challenges and opportunities of collecting long-term data on avian communities necessary for answering questions across large regions but highlights the value of research coordination for bird conservation.