A Spatial Analysis of Anthropogenically Derived and Naturally Occurring Environmental Controls on Corn-based Ethanol Production in Nebraska

Authors

• Nathan Charles Healey, University of Nebraska-Lincoln

First Advisor

Kenneth G. Hubbard

Second Advisor

Ayse Irmak

Date of this Version

8-2008

Document Type

Thesis

Citation

A thesis presented to the faculty of the Graduate College at the University of Nebraska in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of Master of Science

Major: Natural Resource Sciences

Under the supervision of Professors Kenneth G. Hubbard and Ayse Irmak

Lincoln, Nebraska, August 2008

Comments

Copyright 2008, Nathan Charles Healey. Used by permission

Abstract

Transportation fuels are an integral part of political, economic, social, and environmental arenas. Traditionally, fossil fuels have been utilized most heavily due to their abundance and economic value. Currently, social and political concerns about harmful emissions (greenhouse gases) from fossil fuel combustion have enhanced interest in alternative fuels that do not have the same environmental consequence. Numerous alternative fuels are produced globally including methanol, biodiesel, hydrogen cells, and ethanol (ethyl alcohol). In America, ethanol is produced from com due to the existence of the "Com Belt" and abundant corn production. Understanding the capacity for America to sustain expansion of alternative fuel production in the form of ethanol is important for future transportation fuel sustainability. There are a number of factors that influence the NE corn-based ethanol industry including numerous political, economic, sociological, and environmental controls. This research focuses on environmental variables that affect how, where, and how much corn is grown in NE by utilizing county-level spatial data that represents location of com lands and ethanol plants, predicted com yields, land use practice (irrigated vs. rainfed corn), precipitation patterns, irrigation requirements, and water resource use restrictions. Overall objective of this thesis is to provide a better understanding of the potential number of ethanol plants and the associated capacity to meet the potential for agricultural-based ethanol production in NE where the ethanol industry is currently growing at a rapid rate. Strength of control on suitability for com-based ethanol that is exhibited by each variable has been analyzed using a Principle Component Analysis (PCA). We found the collections of counties with the highest yields are the most suitable locations for sustainable ethanol production. The strongest competition for com production is in east-central NE between IO ethanol plants simply because they are within a 50 mile radius of one another. These ethanol plants will be most likely pressured to increase yields and/or expand com land area with increasing ethanol production goals for the future. PCA analysis revealed that irrigation requirement, and growing season precipitation has a stronger control on com-based ethanol.Our findings support the hypothesis that the naturally occurring environmental controls are playing a bigger role than those human induced on com production, in tum, com-based ethanol production.