Social Bonds and Dynamic Risk in Predicting Juvenile Recidivism Among Florida Probation Youth

Authors

• Shadrach Sackey, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow

First Advisor

Lisa Kort-Butler

Committee Members

Kimberly A. Tyler, Seulki kim

Date of this Version

5-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Citation

A thesis presented to the faculty of the Graduate College at the University of Nebraska in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of Master of Arts

Major: Sociology

Under the supervision of Professor Lisa Kort-Butler

Lincoln, Nebraska, May 2026

Comments

Copyright 2026, Shadrach Sackey. Used by permission

Abstract

Juvenile recidivism remains a persistent challenge within the United States juvenile justice system, particularly among youth supervised in community-based probation programs. This study examines how family context, school engagement, peer associations, antisocial beliefs, and overall dynamic risk are associated with recidivism among juvenile probation youth in Florida. Drawing on social bond theory and social learning theory, the analysis uses administrative data from the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice (FDJJ) Juvenile Justice Information System, including 6,215 youth who completed community-based probation supervision between 2015 and 2018. Recidivism was measured using two outcomes within a 365-day follow-up period: rearrest and readjudication. Descriptive analyses and sequential logistic regression models were estimated to assess both domain-specific and cumulative risk effects. Results indicate that school conduct problems, weak belief in conventional norms, antisocial peer associations, and family incarceration were associated with increased likelihood of rearrest, while fewer factors consistently predicted readjudication. The Positive Achievement Change Tool (PACT) total dynamic risk score emerged as the strongest predictor of rearrest but showed limited association with readjudication outcomes. Findings suggest that social bonds operating within school and family contexts play distinct roles across levels of justice system recontact. The study highlights the importance of theory-guided risk assessment and targeted intervention strategies to reduce recidivism among youth on probation.

Advisor: Lisa Kort-Butler