A MICROCOMPUTER MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE SPREAD AND CONTROL OF FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE IN FERAL PIGS

Authors

R.P. Pech, CSIRO Division of Wildlife and Ecology
J.C. McIlroy, CSIRO Division of Wildlife and Ecology
M.F. Clough, CSIRO Division of Wildlife and Ecology
D.G. Green, Research School of Biological Sciences, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia

Date of this Version

March 1992

Abstract

A microcomputer software package (AUSPLAGUE) is being constructed for development and testing of management plans for eradicating an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in the Australian Capital Territory (ACT). It will indicate when and where control of feral pigs (Sus scrofa) is necessary to contain and eradicate, the disease. The software simulates the distribution and prevalence of FMD in feral pigs from the start of an outbreak and throughout the subsequent eradication campaign. The procedure is to integrate landscape data, the distribution and social behavior of feral pigs, a model of disease dynamics, and appropriate control measures. The modular package design enables data bases and models of hostdisease dynamics to be updated as further information is acquired on feral pig ecology. When completed, AUSPLAGUE will be used as a decision-support system in developing control strategies for a wide range of outbreak scenarios, and it will serve as a prototype for other diseases of feral animals and native wildlife.