Center for Systematic Entomology, Gainesville, Florida



Guy E. Connolly, USDA-APHIS Animal Damage Control

Document Type Article

Published in Coyotes in the Southwest: A Compendium of Our Knowledge. Symposium Proceedings, December 13–14, 1995, San Angelo, TX, edited by Dale Rollins, Calvin Richardson, Terry Blankenship, Kem Canon, and Scott Henke. Austin, Texas, 1996. Used by permission.


Population dynamics models are useful for estimating coyote (Canis latrans) population responses to exploitation w well as to hypothetical birth intervention techniques At least 6 coyote simulation models have been developed over the past 25 years. This paper reviews the model developed by Connolly and Longhurst (1 975), and identifies some potential improvements based upon new biological information and modem computing technology. The biological concepts embodied in the Connolly-Longhurst (C-L) model seem as valid In 1995 as they were in 1975. Newer studies have tended to reaffirm rather than revise earlier concepts of coyote population mechanics. One significant shortcoming of the C-L model, as acknowledged by the authors at the time, was its failure to include immigration as one of the mechanisms for replacement of coyotes removed in control. Subsequent studies have reiterated the importance of immigration and emigration in the dynamics of exploited coyote populations, but researchers have not made corresponding progress toward the incorporation of these phenomena into simulation models. Updating the C-L model would consist largely of revamping it to run on modem computers and software. A new edition would make the model useful to wildlife managers interested in the effects of predator control on the dynamics of selected coyote populations. The updated model would calculate births and deaths monthly rather than annually, and minor changes could be made to the birth and natural mortality functions. However, the revised model probably would sustain most of the conclusions stated in 1975.