U.S. Joint Fire Science Program


Date of this Version


Document Type



JFSP # 05-2-1-105


US government work.


We developed 3-year post-fire mortality models for 12 western conifer species by pooling data collected from multiple fire-injury studies. Models were developed for white fir, red fir, subalpine fir, incense cedar, western larch, lodgepole pine, whitebark pine, ponderosa pine, Jeffrey pine, sugar pine, Engelmann spruce, and Douglas-fir. Two sets of models were created, one for use in pre-fire planning where only crown injury and DBH were potential variables, and a second, optimal model for use in post-fire planning that used all significant variables. Predictive accuracy of all models was compared to the accuracy of the mortality model currently used in the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM), BehavePlus, and the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FFE-FVS). These new models will be added to FOFEM version 5.7 and BehavePlus 4.5. The mortality options in FOFEM will also be expanded. We also examined the accuracy of bark char codes to predict cambium injury at the base of trees after fire and made management recommendations for when it is appropriate to use bark char codes in place of direct cambium sampling.