Understanding the Influence of Climate Forecasts on Farmer Decisions as Planned Behavior

Authors

Ikrom Artikov, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Stacey Hoffman, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow
Gary Lynne, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow
Lisa M. PytlikZillig, University of Nebraska Public Policy CenterFollow
Q. Steven Hu, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Alan Tomkins, University of Nebraska Public Policy CenterFollow
Kenneth Hubbard, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow
Michael Hayes, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow
William J. Waltman, University of Nebraska – LincolnFollow

Date of this Version

9-2006

Document Type

Article

Citation

JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY VOLUME 45 (SEPTEMBER 2006), pp 1202-1214

Comments

© 2006 American Meteorological Society. Used by permission.

Abstract

Results of a set of four regression models applied to recent survey data of farmers in eastern Nebraska suggest the causes that drive farmer intentions of using weather and climate information and forecasts in farming decisions. The model results quantify the relative importance of attitude, social norm, perceived behavioral control, and financial capability in explaining the influence of climate-conditions information and short-term and long-term forecasts on agronomic, crop insurance, and crop marketing decisions. Attitude, serving as a proxy for the utility gained from the use of such information, had the most profound positive influence on the outcome of all the decisions, followed by norms. The norms in the community, as a proxy for the utility gained from allowing oneself to be influenced by others, played a larger role in agronomic decisions than in insurance or marketing decisions. In addition, the interaction of controllability (accuracy, availability, reliability, timeliness of weather and climate information), self-efficacy (farmer ability and understanding), and general preference for control was shown to be a substantive cause. Yet control variables also have an economic side: The farm-sales variable as a measure of financial ability and motivation intensified and clarified the role of control while also enhancing the statistical robustness of the attitude and norms variables in better clarifying how they drive the influence. Overall, the integrated model of planned behavior from social psychology and derived demand from economics, that is, the “planned demand model,” is more powerful than models based on either of these approaches alone. Taken together, these results suggest that the “human dimension” needs to be better recognized so as to improve effective use of climate and weather forecasts and information for farming decision making.