Date of this Version
1979 American Meteorolgical Society
All Lake Erie lake-effect days for a 10-year period prior to the 1976-77 snowfall season were utilized in the development of an operational lake-effect snowfall forecast model. Upper air and surface observation were combined with overlake data and analyzed, using stepwise multiple-discriminant analysis. A nine-predictor mesoscale forecast model resulted from this statistical test and its performance was evaluated during the 1976-77 and 1977-78 snowfall seasons. The results of this evaluation indicate that it is possible to predict six intensities of the Lake Erie lake-effect snowstorm using this mesoscale model.