Natural Resources, School of


Date of this Version



1979 American Meteorological Society


A research effort was initiated in 1976 to develop an objective lake-effect snowfall forecast model for each of the Great Lakes. It is the purpose of this paper to present the development and evaluation of the forecast method which was created for the Lake Ontario induced snowfall systems. All Lake Ontario lake-effect days were identified for a 10-yead period prior to the 1976 snowfall season. Upper air surface observations were combined with overlake data for these lake-effect periods. The dominant predictors were derived through the diagnostic ability of stepwise multiple discriminant analysis. The final product of this research effort was a seven-predictor lake-effect intensity forecast method which was evaluated on an experimental basis during the 1976-77 and 1977-78 snowfall seasons.