Statistics, Department of

 

ORCID IDs

Miguel Fudolig

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

12-9-2020

Citation

Fudolig M, Howard R (2020) The local stability of a modified multi-strain SIR model for emerging viral strains. PLoS ONE 15(12): e0243408. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal. pone.0243408

Comments

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract

We study a novel multi-strain SIR epidemic model with selective immunity by vaccination. A newer strain is made to emerge in the population when a preexisting strain has reached equilbrium. We assume that this newer strain does not exhibit cross-immunity with the original strain, hence those who are vaccinated and recovered from the original strain become susceptible to the newer strain. Recent events involving the COVID-19 virus shows that it is possible for a viral strain to emerge from a population at a time when the influenza virus, a well-known virus with a vaccine readily available, is active in a population. We solved for four different equilibrium points and investigated the conditions for existence and local stability. The reproduction number was also determined for the epidemiological model and found to be consistent with the local stability condition for the disease-free equilibrium.

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