Agronomy and Horticulture, Department of
Document Type
Article
Date of this Version
2004
Citation
Clim Res Vol. 25: 243–252, 2004
Abstract
Accurate prediction of phenological development is important in the winter wheat Triticum aestivum agroecosystem. From a practical perspective, applications of pesticides and fertilizers are carried out at specific phenological stages. In crop-simulation modeling, the prediction of yield components (kernel number and kernel weight) and wheat-grain yield relies on accurate prediction of phenology. In this study, a nonlinear multiplicative model by Wang & Engel (WE) for predicting phenological development in differing winter wheat cultivars was evaluated using data from a 3 yr field experiment. In the vegetative phase (emergence to anthesis) the daily development rate (r) was simulated based on the product of a maximum development rate (Rmax) in the vegetative phase, a temperature response function [ƒ(T)], a photoperiod response function [ƒ(P)], and a vernalization response function [ƒ(V)]. ƒ(T) was a nonlinear function of the 3 cardinal temperatures for phenological development (minimum, Tmin, optimum, Topt, and maximum, Tmax). ƒ(P) was an exponential function of the actual and critical photoperiods and a sensitivity parameter unique to each cultivar. ƒ(V) was calculated using ƒ(T) based on the cardinal temperatures for vernalization (Tmin,vn, Topt,vn, and Tmax,vn). In the reproductive phase, r was simulated based on the product of Rmax for the reproductive phase and ƒ(T). Predictions from this nonlinear model were compared to predictions from the phenology submodel of CERES-Wheat V3.0 (CW3). The nonlinear model performed very well for predicting phenological development in the 3 winter wheat cultivars, the mean root mean square error (RMSE) ranged from 2.9 to 4.1 d from booting to maturity. For the CW3 model, the mean RMSE ranged from 4.8 to 5.9 d for the same phenological stages. The WE model predicted double ridge with a mean RMSE of 7.3 d. Both models predicted terminal spikelet with a mean RMSE ranging from 6.2 to 7.1 d. The WE model was generally a better predictor of phenology between booting and maturity than the CW3 model.
Included in
Agricultural Science Commons, Agriculture Commons, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Commons, Botany Commons, Horticulture Commons, Other Plant Sciences Commons, Plant Biology Commons
Comments
© Inter-Research 2004