The Cattle Price Cycle: Revisited Again

Authors

Matthew C. Stockton, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Roger K. Wilson, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Leslie Aaron Stalker, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow

Date of this Version

1-1-2008

Comments

Published in 2008 Nebraska Beef Cattle Report. Copyright © 2007 The Board of Regents of the University of Nebraska.

Abstract

New analyses and statistical techniques were applied to historical data to determine if time, changes in production technology, and business structure changes in the sector had altered the length of the cattle price cycle. Most recent work has been done the cattle inventory cycle. The price cycle was shown to be remarkably constant, despite many changes in the industry. Feeder cattle prices have continued to follow an approximate 10-year cycle. The model demonstrates the consistency of the cycle but shows that unexplained price variations occur suggesting caution be employed when it is used as a marketing guide.