Public Policy Center, University of Nebraska

 

Date of this Version

2015

Citation

Published in Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research 7:1 (2015), pp. 41–51. doi: 10.1080/19390459.2014.970800

Comments

Copyright © 2014 Taylor & Francis. Used by permission.

Abstract

Advances in probabilistic forecasting, notably based on ensemble prediction systems, are transforming flood risk management. Four trends shaping the assimilation of probabilistic flood forecasting into flood risk management are longer forecasting lead times, advances in decision-making aids, inclusion of probabilistic forecasting in hazard mitigation and collaboration between researchers and managers. Confronting how to use probabilistic flood forecasts to make binary management decisions for reducing flood losses requires developing institutional capacity while acknowledging flood risk estimation is one component of decision making under uncertainty in an evolving policy landscape.