Closing yield gaps for rice self-sufficiency in China

Authors

Nanyan Deng, Huazhong Agricultural University
Patricio Grassini, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Haishun Yang, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Jianliang Huang, Huazhong Agricultural University
Kenneth G. Cassman, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Shaobing Peng, Huazhong Agricultural UniversityFollow

ORCID IDs

0000-0003-1998-6300

0000-0002-7501-842X

0000-0002-4700-0329

0000-0002-9775-3468

0000-0003-1696-9409

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

2019

Citation

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 10:1725

Comments

© The Author(s) 2019.

Open access

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09447-9

Abstract

China produces 28% of global rice supply and is currently self-sufficient despite a massive rural-to-urban demographic transition that drives intense competition for land and water resources. At issue is whether it will remain self-sufficient, which depends on the potential to raise yields on existing rice land. Here we report a detailed spatial analysis of rice production potential in China and evaluate scenarios to 2030. We find that China is likely to remain self-sufficient in rice assuming current yield and consumption trajectories and no reduction in production area. A focus on increasing yields of double-rice systems on general, and in three single-rice provinces where yield gaps are relatively large, would provide greatest return on investments in research and development to remain self-sufficient. Discrepancies between results from our detailed bottom-up yield-gap analysis and those derived following a topdown methodology show that the two approaches would result in very different research and development priorities.