Agronomy and Horticulture, Department of
Department of Agronomy and Horticulture: Faculty Publications
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ORCID IDs
0000-0003-1998-6300
0000-0002-7501-842X
0000-0002-4700-0329
0000-0002-9775-3468
0000-0003-1696-9409
Document Type
Article
Date of this Version
2019
Citation
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | (2019) 10:1725
Abstract
China produces 28% of global rice supply and is currently self-sufficient despite a massive rural-to-urban demographic transition that drives intense competition for land and water resources. At issue is whether it will remain self-sufficient, which depends on the potential to raise yields on existing rice land. Here we report a detailed spatial analysis of rice production potential in China and evaluate scenarios to 2030. We find that China is likely to remain self-sufficient in rice assuming current yield and consumption trajectories and no reduction in production area. A focus on increasing yields of double-rice systems on general, and in three single-rice provinces where yield gaps are relatively large, would provide greatest return on investments in research and development to remain self-sufficient. Discrepancies between results from our detailed bottom-up yield-gap analysis and those derived following a topdown methodology show that the two approaches would result in very different research and development priorities.
Included in
Agricultural Science Commons, Agriculture Commons, Agronomy and Crop Sciences Commons, Botany Commons, Horticulture Commons, Other Plant Sciences Commons, Plant Biology Commons
Comments
© The Author(s) 2019.
Open access
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09447-9