Prospects for Cereal Self-sufficiency in Sub-Saharan Africa

Authors

• Martin K. van Ittersum, Wageningen UniversityFollow
• Seyyedmajid Alimagham, Wageningen University
• João Vasco Silva, Wageningen University
• Samuel Adjei-Nsiah, University of Ghana
• Frederick P. Baijukya, International Institute of Tropical Agriculture
• Abdullahi Bala, Federal University of Technology
• Regis Chikowo, University of Zimbabwe
• Patricio Grassini, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
• Hugo L. E. de Groot, Wageningen University
• Aphrodis Nshizirungu, Wageningen University
• Abdelkader Mahamane Soulé, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique du Niger
• Timothy B. Sulser, International Food Policy Research Institute
• Godfrey Taulya, Makerere University
• Fatima Amor Tenorio, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
• Kindie Tesfaye, AGRA
• Shen Yuan, Huazhong Agricultural University
• Marloes P. van Loon, Wageningen University

ORCID IDs

van Ittersum: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8611-6781

Alimagham: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8685-6798

Adjei-Nsiah: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4428-5063

Chikowo: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3047-359X

Grassini: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7501-842X

Sulser: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7128-5283

Taulya: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5690-0492

Tenorio: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9836-3878

van Loon: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8665-0810

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

2025

Citation

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) (2025) 122(24): e2423669122

doi: 10.1073/pnas.2423669122

Comments

Open access

License: CC BY 4.0

Abstract

Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has the world’s largest projected increase in demand for food. Increased dependence on imports makes SSA vulnerable to geopolitical and economic risks, while further expansion of agricultural land is environmentally harmful. Cereals, in particular, maize, millet, rice, sorghum, and wheat, take nearly 50% of the cropland and 43% of the calories and proteins consumed in the region. Demand is projected to double until 2050. Here, we assess recent developments in cereal self-sufficiency and provide outlooks until 2050 under different intensification, area expansion, and climate change scenarios. We use detailed data for ten countries. Cereal self-sufficiency increased between 2010 and 2020 from 84 to 92% despite the 29% population increase. The production increase was achieved by increased yields per hectare (44%), area expansion (34%), and a shift from millet to the higher yielding maize (22%). Outlooks for 2050 are less pessimistic than earlier assessments because of the larger 2020 baseline area, higher shares of maize and somewhat less steep projected population increase. Yet, to halt further area expansion, a drastic trend change in annual yield increase from the present 20 to 58 kg ha^-1 y^-1 is needed to achieve cereal self-sufficiency. While such yield increases have been achieved elsewhere and are feasible given the yield potentials in SSA, they require structural changes and substantial agronomic, socioeconomic, and political investments. We estimate that amounts of added nitrogen need to at least triple to achieve such yield improvements, but it is essential that this comes with improved context-specific agronomy.