Data-Driven Charging Demand Prediction at Public Charging Stations Using Supervised Machine Learning Regression Methods

Authors

Ahmad Almaghrebi, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Fares Aljuheshi,, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Mostafa Rafaie, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Kevin James, University of Nebraska–Lincoln
Mahmoud Alahmad, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow

Date of this Version

8-16-2020

Citation

Energies 2020, 13, 4231; doi:10.3390/en13164231

Comments

© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license

Abstract

Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV) user charging behavior has a significant influence on a distribution network and its reliability. Generally, monitoring energy consumption has become one of the most important factors in green and micro grids; therefore, predicting the charging demand of PEVs (the energy consumed during the charging session) could help to efficiently manage the electric grid. Consequently, three machine learning methods are applied in this research to predict the charging demand for the PEV user after a charging session starts. This approach is validated using a dataset consisting of seven years of charging events collected from public charging stations in the state of Nebraska, USA. The results show that the regression method, XGBoost, slightly outperforms the other methods in predicting the charging demand, with an RMSE equal to 6.68 kWh and R² equal to 51.9%. The relative importance of input variables is also discussed, showing that the user’s historical average demand has the most predictive value. Accurate prediction of session charging demand, as opposed to the daily or hourly demand of multiple users, has many possible applications for utility companies and charging networks, including scheduling, grid stability, and smart grid integration.