Swapping space for time and unfair tests of ecological models

Authors

Andrew J. Tyre, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Brigitte Tenhumberg, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow
Michael A. McCarthy, National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, UC Santa BarbaraFollow
Hugh P. Possingham, University of QueenslandFollow

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

8-2000

Citation

Published in Austral Ecology 25:4 (August 2000), pp. 327–331; doi: 10.1046/j.1442-9993.2000.01043.x

Comments

Copyright © 2000 Andrew J. Tyre, Brigitte Tenhumberg, Michael A. McCarthy, and Hugh P. Possingham. Published for the Ecological Society of Australia by Wiley-Blackwell. Used by permission.

Abstract

Testing ecological models for management is an increasingly important part of the maturation of ecology as an applied science. Consequently, we need to work at applying fair tests of models with adequate data. We demonstrate that a recent test of a discrete time, stochastic model was biased towards falsifying the predictions. If the model was a perfect description of reality, the test falsified the predictions 84% of the time. We introduce an alternative testing procedure for stochastic models, and show that it falsifies the predictions only 5% of the time when the model is a perfect description of reality. The example is used as a point of departure to discuss some of the philosophical aspects of model testing.