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ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTING IN NEBRASKA
Abstract
The purpose in this study was to describe the state of the art of enrollment projecting in Nebraska elementary and secondary public schools. One part of the dissertation describes the empirical methods in use, data gathered for enrollment projecting, and the social, political, and economic factors considered in enrollment projecting. Another part summarizes the opinions of school superintendents about the degree to which their training institutions had prepared them to make enrollment projections for their districts. A third part is a comparison of the views of Nebraska enrollment projection specialists with those of national enrollment projection specialists on selected issues. A review of literature related to enrollment projecting methods, types of data utilized in enrollment projecting, and the social, political, and economic factors given consideration in enrollment projecting was conducted. Two forms of a questionnaire were administered. One form administered to a group of 63 Nebraska school superintendents gathered data about what existed in the area of enrollment projecting in Nebraska. The other form administered to a different group of 63 Nebraska school superintendents gathered data about what should have existed. In addition, five Nebraska enrollment projecting specialists and five national enrollment projecting specialists were interviewed for their opinions and recommendations about enrollment projecting. An instrument entitled Degree of Specialization Index (D.S.I.) was developed for the interview part of the study. The D.S.I. was used as one of the measures to determine which Nebraska specialists were selected for interviews. As a result of the findings of this study, the following conclusions seem warranted: (1) There was a lack of enrollment projections for utilization in statewide or regional educational planning in the state of Nebraska. The study disclosed that the Nebraska State Department of Education was the only organization in the state of Nebraska which had published elementary and secondary school enrollment projections for areas larger than one school district. (2) Many persons in a position which involved responsibility for conducting school enrollment projections in Nebraska schools had little knowledge or experience in enrollment projecting. Self reported scores on the Degree of Specialization Index indicated that the majority of respondents gave themselves little or no credit for specialization in this area. Those who did score highly on the instrument usually did so on the basis of experience. (3) This study disclosed conflicting opinions about data collection between practicing school administrators and specialists in enrollment projecting. Practicing administrators felt they were collecting sufficient data for enrollment projections, but, in contrast, the most frequent recommendation by both Nebraska and national specialists was that the data base for enrollment projecting be improved. (4) Data from this study supported the contention that school districts with fewer than 100 students have little need for a statistical method more complicated than a census count when making enrollment projections. The following recommendations were made as a result of this study: (1) Statewide and regional enrollment projections should be developed on a yearly basis through the cooperation of practicing school administrators, the Nebraska State Department of Education, and college and university personnel who have specialized in enrollment projecting. (2) School administrator trainers should develop some type of training program in enrollment projecting which fulfills the needs of the institution's population. In some cases an overview of the topic or the use of enrollment case studies as a portion of a more general course may be sufficient. In other cases a comprehensive course for students with a potential need for more specialization in enrollment projecting may be necessary.
Subject Area
School administration
Recommended Citation
WEDEMEYER, ATLEY BERNARD, "ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY PUBLIC SCHOOL ENROLLMENT PROJECTING IN NEBRASKA" (1980). ETD collection for University of Nebraska-Lincoln. AAI8021361.
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/dissertations/AAI8021361