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POTENTIAL IMPACT OF GROUND WATER POLICY ALTERNATIVES ON NEBRASKA AGRICULTURE, 1977-2020
Abstract
Nine agricultural and related ground water policy scenarios were analyzed for Nebraska over the time period 1977-2020 to determine how they might influence returns to land and management, farm production and aquifer conditions. A BASELINE scenario served as the yardstick for measuring all other scenarios. A recursive linear programming (RLP) model was developed for the study. The RLP framework enabled an analysis of the many physical and economic forces which impact simultaneously on the agricultural production process. The RLP model's solution constituted an optimum with respect to maximizing returns over variable costs, yielded the level of the various ground water irrigated and dryland crops grown and provided the impact of ground water irrigated crop production on the aquifer. The BASELINE scenario was based on three key assumptions: (1)a no new public action posture with respect to ground water management, (2)a present day level of real dollar expenditures for research and education, and (3)a situation where all inputs needed for production could be purchased, i.e., no public rationing of inputs. The BASELINE scenario results show an overall bright future for Nebraska's ground water irrigated and dryland agriculture. Substantial per acre and statewide total real dollar increases in returns to land and management were projected over the 43-year study period. Ground water irrigation statewide increased from 5.1 million acres in 1977 to 12.1 million acres in 2020. However, under the BASELINE scenario by the end of 2020 almost 2.5 million acres of previously irrigated land had reverted to dryland. Three ground water restriction scenarios which limited water application on a per developed irrigated acre basis were analyzed. For the scenario which restricted irrigation applications to one-half the 1977 average water usage in each study region after 1984, total statewide annual returns to land and management were reduced from the BASELINE by 14 percent in 2020, but relative to the BASELINE 274 thousand fewer irrigated acres were physically exhausted than in the BASELINE by the year 2000, and 1.4 million fewer acres were exhausted by the year 2020. Three scenarios were analyzed which either involved a rapid adoption of a new irrigation technology or an improvement in irrigation efficiency. Significant gains were shown for these scenarios over the BASELINE. Two scenarios were analyzed that prohibited ground water irrigation development after 1984. The development restriction scenarios do not appear to be viable policy alternatives. The water restriction scenarios provide as high a total annual statewide return to land and management and so almost as well or better in preserving the life of the aquifer. Differences in returns to land and management and aquifer impacts among the nine scenarios analyzed in this study should provide ground water policy makers a good indication of the relative impact of a given water policy alternative.
Subject Area
Agricultural economics
Recommended Citation
LEHOLM, ARLEN GALE, "POTENTIAL IMPACT OF GROUND WATER POLICY ALTERNATIVES ON NEBRASKA AGRICULTURE, 1977-2020" (1981). ETD collection for University of Nebraska-Lincoln. AAI8120166.
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/dissertations/AAI8120166