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PREDICTING FUTURE SMOKING LEVELS OF ADOLESCENT EXPERIMENTAL SMOKERS
Abstract
Most adolescents experiment with cigarette smoking. Since health risks increase with increased frequency and duration of regular cigarette smoking, delaying the onset of experimentation as well as extending the period of sporadic experimentation are important objectives. If factors can be identified that discriminate between adolescents who increase smoking and adolescents who decrease smoking, it may be possible to modify the behavior of the increased smoking group to coincide with the behavior of the decreased smoking group. This information could be used in designing more effective smoking education programs. The present prospective study examined the usefulness of seven selected variables from Jessor and Jessor's problem behavior theory in predicting the future smoking levels of adolescent experimental smokers. Adolescent experimental smokers were identified through a survey of 2,550 seventh and eighth grade students in a midwestern, metropolitan area. They survey assessed the subjects' current smoking levels as well as subjects' responses to the selected variables. Twelve months later the entire sample was resurveyed to assess the subsequent smoking levels of subjects initially reporting experimental smoking. Experimental smokers who responded to both surveys (n = 225) were the subjects of the present study. The full model discriminant function analysis was significant; 68% of the subjects were correctly classified. This moderately successful hit rate was 24% better than what could be expected by chance alone. Stepwise discriminant analysis assessed whether both the personality system and the perceived environment system were represented in the most parsimonious set of variables discriminating between increased and decreased smoking. The three salient variables were: (personality system) expectation of achievement and smoking functions disjunction;(perceived environment system) peer models. Increased smokers had lower expectations for academic achievement, had stronger beliefs about the positive functions of smoking, and perceived more smoking among their classmates and close friends. Educational interventions are suggested which address adolescent cigarette smoking as well as the syndrome of problem behavior.
Subject Area
Health education
Recommended Citation
GERBER, RUTH WENZL, "PREDICTING FUTURE SMOKING LEVELS OF ADOLESCENT EXPERIMENTAL SMOKERS" (1987). ETD collection for University of Nebraska-Lincoln. AAI8800006.
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/dissertations/AAI8800006