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Risk-cost analysis under uncertainty for dredged material disposal
Abstract
A methodology for risk-cost trade-off analysis under uncertainty is developed to assist the evaluation of dredged material disposal alternatives. Specifically, environmental risks and costs (and associated uncertainties) due to excavation, transport, and disposal of dredged material are evaluated and traded off so that appropriate disposal alternatives can be selected. Presently, several technologies are available for disposal of dredged material including unconfined aquatic, capped aquatic, near-shore, and upland disposal. The choice of technology depends largely on the degree of contamination of the sediments. Management options which reduce the risk of environmental degradation are often very costly, while low cost alternatives may not provide environmental protection which is deemed adequate. The risk-cost methodology developed in this study is designed to assist decision makers in selecting a management scheme that is both environmentally sound and cost-effective while considering the uncertainties of both risks and costs. Carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risks to human populations and risks to ecological populations due to toxicity, burial and habitat loss are estimated. Fate and transport modeling is used to estimate exposures to contaminants in the dredged material. The various risks (human and ecological) are traded off to arrive at an environmental risk index which is then traded off with the cost of operation. Uncertainties are characterized and propagated through the evaluation using fuzzy set methods. This methodology improves present dredged material evaluation procedures because it considers: human health impacts explicitly, habitat impacts, costs, comparative impacts of alternative disposal sites, and uncertainties.
Subject Area
Civil engineering|Environmental science|Operations research|Business community
Recommended Citation
Stansbury, John Steven, "Risk-cost analysis under uncertainty for dredged material disposal" (1991). ETD collection for University of Nebraska-Lincoln. AAI9208115.
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/dissertations/AAI9208115