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Health risk analysis of ground water nitrate contamination
Abstract
Ingested nitrate may be converted to carcinogenic nitrosamines and nitrosamides in the stomach. This concern is heightened from nitrate ingested in water due to the lack of inhibiting agents found in other nitrate sources (i.e. vegetables, etc.). Most rural communities use the ground water as their water source, but nitrate concentrations in the ground water have increased in many agricultural areas due to the fertilizer practices of the past years. The mathematical models of the processes affecting nitrate movement to and in the ground water and its transformation to carcinogens and the data used as input in these models is usually very uncertain. This study developed a methodology that will account for this uncertainty and determine its magnitude in the final result. The methodology can use statistical approaches, fuzzy sets, or a combination of the two to estimate the uncertainty. An example of this methodology was produced using Monte Carlo simulation (a statistical technique) to provide a health risk analysis of ground water nitrate contamination near Wood River, NE. The effect of six different farm management schemes was examined to determine their effect on nitrate contamination and health of the rural population. The exposure assessment was accomplished using three models--a precipitation model, an unsaturated zone model, and a saturated zone model. The risk assessment used a dose-response model to determine the health consequences of each farm management scheme. Finally a multi-criteria decision making model was used to trade-off the risks and costs associated with each farm management scheme to determine the "best" solution.
Subject Area
Civil engineering|Environmental science|Agricultural engineering
Recommended Citation
Curtis, Bruce Allen, "Health risk analysis of ground water nitrate contamination" (1992). ETD collection for University of Nebraska-Lincoln. AAI9308170.
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/dissertations/AAI9308170