Off-campus UNL users: To download campus access dissertations, please use the following link to log into our proxy server with your NU ID and password. When you are done browsing please remember to return to this page and log out.
Non-UNL users: Please talk to your librarian about requesting this dissertation through interlibrary loan.
United States-Canada wheat trade dispute: Some additional evidence
Abstract
This study examines the issue of the U.S.-Canada wheat trade dispute using two different approaches. First, relationships between U.S. and Canadian wheat prices are analyzed using cointegration and an error correction model (ECM). Cointegration and error correction approaches provide an opportunity to identify long-run relationships in addition to short-run dynamics. The cointegration results indicate that U.S. and Canadian prices are cointegrated both in the durum and hard spring market. This means that there is a long run equilibrium relationship between these prices. The ECM results suggest that U.S. prices adjust to correct disequilibria whereas Canadian prices do not respond to any such disequilibria. In terms of policy, this suggests that differences between the U.S. and Canadian farm programs and marketing systems may undermine the effectiveness of U.S. farm programs but Canadian programs are not affected. Thus, U.S. efforts to pursue independent policies may not be effective in the long run. Since price analysis does not quantify the impact of specific policy changes or the extent of the impact of Canadian wheat exports to the U.S., a complete structural econometric model of wheat production, consumption and trade is developed. The model includes four regions, the United States, Canada, the European Union and the rest of the world. The model incorporates product differentiation of wheat both by country of origin and end uses. Important government interventions in major trading regions are also included in the model. The demand system is represented as a dynamic AIDS model. Supply systems are estimated using OLS. Both demand and supply systems are combined to obtain equilibrium price and quantity for each type of wheat. The model is then used to analyze the causes and consequences of recent flows of durum and hard spring wheat between Canada and the U.S. The simulation results suggest that Canadian wheat has smaller impact on the U.S. wheat market, particularly on the U.S. wheat prices and in turn, deficiency payments. Simulation results also suggest that Export Enhancement Program has not provided primary impetus for increased wheat imports from Canada.
Subject Area
Agricultural economics
Recommended Citation
Mohanty, Samarendu, "United States-Canada wheat trade dispute: Some additional evidence" (1995). ETD collection for University of Nebraska-Lincoln. AAI9604425.
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/dissertations/AAI9604425