Dividing to Survive, Fight, or Ally: Understanding Terrorist Group Splintering

Authors

• Makayla Wendland, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow

First Advisor

Ross Miller

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (Ph.D.)

Committee Members

Andrew Goodhart, Kelly Smith, Pierce Ekstrom, Robert Schub

Department

Political Science

Date of this Version

5-4-2026

Document Type

Dissertation

Citation

A dissertation presented to the faculty of the Graduate College at the University of Nebraska in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree Doctor of Philosophy

Major: Political Science

Under the supervision of Professor Ross Miller

Lincoln, Nebraska, May 2026

Comments

Copyright 2026, Makayla Wendland. Used by permission

Abstract

The splintering of terrorist groups is extremely common, with members breaking from the ranks of an existing organization to establish a new, independent organization. At times, the process of splintering has produced some of the deadliest terrorist groups globally, significantly affecting the trajectory and intensity of conflict. Conversely, there are times when splintering can produce groups that quickly dissipate without having an impact. This variation in lethality frames the question at the center of this dissertation: how do splinter groups behave and operate in their conflict landscape?

I develop a new theory-based typology to explain variations in the behavior and lethality of splinter terrorist groups. I use two dimensions: strategic preference alignment/divergence with their parent organization and direct/no interaction with their parent organization and distinguish four types of splinters: divorce, challenger, familial, and reformation. To systematically test my theory, I construct an original data collection project, the Tracking of Terrorist Organization Splintering (TOTOS) dataset. Using a series of negative binomial regressions and survival analyses, there are three findings that immediately contribute to our general understanding of splintering: divorce, familial, and reformation splinters conduct fewer total attacks and are less lethal than parent organizations; challenger splinters are able to achieve more attacks than parent organizations; and divorce splinters are less likely to survive. To build on these findings, I develop a spatial-temporal theory and geographically code the TOTOS dataset. I argue that, not only does splintering increase the likelihood of terrorism, but that there are changes in the patterns of violence.

Using hot spot analyses, kernel density estimations, and a series of regression models, I find that the splintering of terrorist groups significantly contributes to the likelihood and intensity of political violence, and the type of splinter is equally, if not more, important. Further, splintering results in the diffusion of violence and significant patterns of clustering over time and as more splinters occur. This research has profound consequences for academics and policymakers for forecasting the expansion of terrorism and patterns of violence as groups break apart, which can be used to inform more effective counterterrorism policies.

Recommended Citation

Wendland, Makayla, "Dividing to Survive, Fight, or Ally: Understanding Terrorist Group Splintering" (2026). Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–. 488.
https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/dissunl/488