The Effect of Unsuccessful Past Repurchases on Future Repurchasing Decisions

Authors

Geoffrey C. Friesen, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Noel Pavel Jeutang, University of South DakotaFollow
Emre Unlu, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow

ORCID IDs

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3995-2036 G.C. Friesen

https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4440-5926 N.P. Jeutang

https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3915-5486 E. Unlu

Date of this Version

1-2022

Citation

Published in Management Science 68:1 (January 2022), pp 716–739.

doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3875

Comments

Copyright © 2021 INFORMS. Used by permission.

Abstract

We find that managers are less likely to repurchase stocks when they lose money on past stock repurchases but find no robust evidence that past gains on repurchases influence future repurchasing activity. This asymmetric sensitivity is strongest for young CEOs and those with the shortest tenure. Also, future repurchases are more sensitive to past repurchase losses for CEOs whose previous lifetime experience with the stock market is unfavorable. The sensitivity of future repurchases to past losses costs firms, on average, about 3.7% per year. When this cost is decomposed into systematic and idiosyncratic components, we find that nearly half (1.8%) comes from mistiming idiosyncratic shocks. Past losses on repurchases have a significant and negative impact on the CEO’s future bonus and increase the likelihood that future CEO termination is involuntary. We also find that negative outcomes from past repurchases encourage the subsequent use of dividends. Our findings suggest that outcomes of past repurchases have economically significant consequences through both nonbehavioral (career concerns) and behavioral (snakebite effect) factors.

Includes supplemental appendix.