Dynamical Variations of the Global COVID-19 Pandemic Based on a SEICR Disease Model: A New Approach of Yi Hua Jie Mu

Authors

• Xia Wang, Shaanxi Normal University
• Gang Yin, Xinjiang University
• Zengyun Hu, Chinese Academy of Sciences
• Daihai He, Hong Kong Polytechnic University
• Qianqian Cui, Ningxia University
• Xiaomei Feng, Yuncheng University
• Zhidong Teng, Xinjiang University
• Qi Hu, University of Nebraska - Lincoln
• Jiansen Li, Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention
• Qiming Zhou, Hong Kong Baptist University

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

7-23-2021

Citation

Wang, X., Yin, G., Hu, Z., He, D., Cui, Q., Feng, X., et al. (2021). Dynamical variations of the global COVID-19 pandemic based on a SEICR disease model: A new approach of Yi Hua Jie Mu. GeoHealth, 5, e2021GH000455. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GH000455

Comments

Open access.

Abstract

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused more than 150 million cases of infection to date and poses a serious threat to global public health. In this study, global COVID-19 data were used to examine the dynamical variations from the perspectives of immunity and contact of 84 countries across the five climate regions: tropical, arid, temperate, and cold. A new approach named Yi Hua Jie Mu is proposed to obtain the transmission rates based on the COVID-19 data between the countries with the same climate region over the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 pandemic will persist over a long period of time or enter into regular circulation in multiple periods of 1–2 years. Moreover, based on the simulated results by the COVID-19 data, it is found that the temperate and cold climate regions have higher infection rates than the tropical and arid climate regions, which indicates that climate may modulate the transmission of COVID-19. The role of the climate on the COVID-19 variations should be concluded with more data and more cautions. The non-pharmaceutical interventions still play the key role in controlling and prevention this global pandemic.