Forecasting the Spread of Raccoon Rabies Using a Purpose-specific Group Decisionmaking Process

Authors

Aaron Anderson, USDA National Wildlife Research CenterFollow
Stephanie A. Shwiff, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
Richard B. Chipman, USDA National Rabies Management Program
Todd Atwood, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
Tyler Cozzens, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
Frank Fillo, USDA Policy and Program Development
Robert Hale, USDA National Rabies Management Program
Brody Hatch, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
Joanne Maki, Merial Limited
Olin E. Rhodes, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
Erin E. Rees, University of Montreal
Charles E. Rupprecht, Global Alliance for Rabies Control
Rowland Tinline, Queen's University
Kurt C. VerCauteren, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
Dennis Slate, USDA National Rabies Management Program

Date of this Version

Spring 2014

Document Type

Article

Citation

Human–Wildlife Interactions (Spring 2014) 8(1): article 14 

doi: 10.26077/an27-z240

Comments

United States government work. Public domain

Abstract

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and USDA Wildlife Services (WS) have been involved in an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) program for raccoons (Procyon lotor) that has slowed the westward spread of raccoon rabies. The objective of this study was to forecast the spread of the disease if an ORV zone was not maintained. A group decision-making process was designed to address the forecasting problem and was implemented using a group of 15 experts and 4 support personnel at a meeting at the USDA National Wildlife Research Center. Ten expansion regions were constructed that described the spread of disease at 2-year intervals. This forecast may provide for more accurate cost-benefit analysis of the ORV barrier.