Forecasting the Spread of Raccoon Rabies Using a Purpose-specific Group Decisionmaking Process

Authors

• Aaron Anderson, USDA National Wildlife Research CenterFollow
• Stephanie A. Shwiff, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
• Richard B. Chipman, USDA National Rabies Management Program
• Todd Atwood, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
• Tyler Cozzens, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
• Frank Fillo, USDA Policy and Program Development
• Robert Hale, USDA National Rabies Management Program
• Brody Hatch, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
• Joanne Maki, Merial Limited
• Olin E. Rhodes, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
• Erin E. Rees, University of Montreal
• Charles E. Rupprecht, Global Alliance for Rabies Control
• Rowland Tinline, Queen's University
• Kurt C. VerCauteren, USDA National Wildlife Research Center
• Dennis Slate, USDA National Rabies Management Program

Date of this Version

Spring 2014

Document Type

Article

Citation

Human–Wildlife Interactions (Spring 2014) 8(1): article 14 

doi: 10.26077/an27-z240

Comments

United States government work. Public domain

Abstract

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and USDA Wildlife Services (WS) have been involved in an oral rabies vaccination (ORV) program for raccoons (Procyon lotor) that has slowed the westward spread of raccoon rabies. The objective of this study was to forecast the spread of the disease if an ORV zone was not maintained. A group decision-making process was designed to address the forecasting problem and was implemented using a group of 15 experts and 4 support personnel at a meeting at the USDA National Wildlife Research Center. Ten expansion regions were constructed that described the spread of disease at 2-year intervals. This forecast may provide for more accurate cost-benefit analysis of the ORV barrier.