U.S. Department of Agriculture: Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service
United States Department of Agriculture Wildlife Services: Staff Publications
Document Type
Article
Date of this Version
2024
Citation
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences (2024) 379: 20220532
doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0532
Supplemental material is appended as well as available at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.c.7389792
Abstract
Social and spatial structures of host populations play important roles in pathogen transmission. For environmentally transmitted pathogens, the host space use interacts with both the host social structure and the pathogen’s environmental persistence (which determines the timelag across which two hosts can transmit). Together, these factors shape the epidemiological dynamics of environmentally transmitted pathogens. While the importance of both social and spatial structures and environmental pathogen persistence has long been recognized in epidemiology, they are often considered separately. A better understanding of how these factors interact to determine disease dynamics is required for developing robust surveillance and management strategies. Here, we use a simple agent-based model where we vary host mobility (spatial), host gregariousness (social) and pathogen decay (environmental persistence), each from low to high levels to uncover how they affect epidemiological dynamics. By comparing epidemic peak, time to epidemic peak and final epidemic size, we show that longer infectious periods, higher group mobility, larger group size and longer pathogen persistence lead to larger, faster growing outbreaks, and explore how these processes interact to determine epidemiological outcomes such as the epidemic peak and the final epidemic size. We identify general principles that can be used for planning surveillance and control for wildlife host–pathogen systems with environmental transmission across a range of spatial behavior, social structure and pathogen decay rates.
This article is part of the theme issue ‘The spatial–social interface: a theoretical and empirical integration.’
Included in
Natural Resources and Conservation Commons, Natural Resources Management and Policy Commons, Other Environmental Sciences Commons, Other Veterinary Medicine Commons, Population Biology Commons, Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology Commons, Veterinary Infectious Diseases Commons, Veterinary Microbiology and Immunobiology Commons, Veterinary Preventive Medicine, Epidemiology, and Public Health Commons, Zoology Commons
Comments
United States government work