Department of Finance
Date of this Version
1994
Document Type
Article
Citation
Journal of Actuarial Practice 2 (1994), pp. 197-220
Abstract
This paper develops a methodology that can be used by insurers to construct predictive models for their own insurance cash flows. The insurance cash flow components evaluated include premium flows, policy loans, and cash value surrenders. Also, the paper evaluates several hypotheses in the insurance literature that attempt to explain insurance cash flows. Though the results are theoretically consistent, they produce some interesting contrasts to findings of similar studies for whole life policies. For example, these results confirm that: (i) the credited rate strategy is important to policy performance; (ii) the emergency fund hypothesis appears to apply to policy loan utilization, premium payments, and total insurance cash flows; (iii) the arbitrage potential with regard to policy loans is reduced; and (iv) direct recognition of policy loans seems to be effective in reducing the disintermediation risk of traditional whole life insurance policies with fixed policy loan rates. Although policyholders do increase their use of policy loans as inflation increases, the overall results suggest that they tend to increase contributions to their universal life policies in order to maintain levels of protection in real terms. Finally, interest rate risk does exist for companies issuing universal life because changes in market interest rates lead to decreases in premiums and in total insurance cash flows. This lends support to the alternative funds hypothesis.
Included in
Accounting Commons, Business Administration, Management, and Operations Commons, Corporate Finance Commons, Finance and Financial Management Commons, Insurance Commons, Management Sciences and Quantitative Methods Commons
Comments
Copyright 1994 Absalom Press