A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making

Authors

Alexander C. Keyel, New York State Department of Health
Morgan E. Gorris, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Ilia Rochlin, Rutgers University
Johnny A. Uelmen, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Luis F. Chaves, Instituto Costarricense de Investigacio´n y Enseñanza en Nutricio´n y Salud (INCIENSA)
Gabriel L. Hamer, Texas A&M University
Imelda K. Moise, University of Miami
Marta Shocket, University of California
A Marm Kilpatrick, University of California
Nicholas B. DeFelice, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai
Justin K. Davis, University of Oklahoma
Eliza Little, Connecticut Agricultural Experimental Station
Patrick Irwin, Northwest Mosquito Abatement District
Andrew J. Tyre, University of Nebraska - Lincoln
Kelly Helm Smith, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow
Chris L. Fredregill, Mosquito and Vector Control Division, Harris County Public Health
Oliver Elison Timm, University at Albany
Karen M. Holcomb, University of California Davis
Michael C. Wimberly, University of Oklahoma
Matthew J. Ward, Universities Space Research Association
Christopher M. Barker, y, University of California Davis
Charlotte G. Rhodes, Texas A&M University
Rebecca L. Smith, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

ORCID IDs

Alexander C. Keyel

Ilia Rochlin

Johnny A. Uelmen

Luis F. Chaves

Marta Shocket

A. Marm Kilpatrick

Nicholas B. DeFelice

Patrick Irwin

Kelly Helm Smith

Chris L. Fredregill

Oliver Elison Timm

Karen M. Holcomb

Michael C. Wimberly

Matthew J. Ward

Christopher M. Barker

Rebecca L. Smith

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

9-9-2021

Citation

Keyel AC, Gorris ME, Rochlin I, Uelmen JA, Chaves LF, Hamer GL, et al. (2021) A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 15(9): e0009653. https://doi. org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009653

Comments

OPEN ACCESS

Abstract

West Nile virus(WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m–km, days–weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.