Development of a composite drought indicator for operational drought monitoring in the MENA region

Authors

Karim Bergaoui, International Water Management Institute, ACQUATEC Solutions
Makram Belhaj Fraj, International Water Management Institute, ACQUATEC Solutions
Stephen Fragaszy, International Water Management Institute
Ali Ghanim, Ministry of Water and Irrigation
Omar Hamadin, Ministry of Transportation
Emad Al‑Karablieh, The University of Jordan
Jawad Al‑Bakri, The University of Jordan
Mona Fakih, Ministry of Energy and Water
Abbas Fayad, Ministry of Energy and Water, University of Saskatchewan
Fadi Comair, Ministry of Energy and Water, Energy, Environment, and Water Research Centre in the Cyprus Institute
Mohamed Yessef, Institut Hassan II of Agronomy and Veterinary Medicine
Hayat Ben Mansour, Direction Générale des Ressources en Eau
Haythem Belgrissi, Institut National de la Météorologie
Kristi Arsenault, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, University of Maryland
Christa Peters‑Lidard, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Sujay Kumar, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Abheera Hazra, University of Maryland, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Wanshu Nie, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Science Applications International Corporation
Michael Hayes, University of Nebraska - LincolnFollow
Mark D. Svoboda, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow
Rachael McDonnell, International Water Management Institute

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

3-5-2024

Citation

Scientific Reports | (2024) 14:5414 | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-55626-0

Comments

Open access.

Abstract

This paper presents the composite drought indicator (CDI) that Jordanian, Lebanese, Moroccan, and Tunisian government agencies now produce monthly to support operational drought management decision making, and it describes their iterative co-development processes. The CDI is primarily intended to monitor agricultural and ecological drought on a seasonal time scale. It uses remote sensing and modelled data inputs, and it reflects anomalies in precipitation, vegetation, soil moisture, and evapotranspiration. Following quantitative and qualitative validation assessments, engagements with policymakers, and consideration of agencies’ technical and institutional capabilities and constraints, we made changes to CDI input data, modelling procedures, and integration to tailor the system for each national context. We summarize validation results, drought modelling challenges and how we overcame them through CDI improvements, and we describe the monthly CDI production process and outputs. Finally, we synthesize procedural and technical aspects of CDI development and reflect on the constraints we faced as well as trade-offs made to optimize the CDI for operational monitoring to support policy decision-making—including aspects of salience, credibility, and legitimacy—within each national context.