Political Science, Department of


Date of this Version

December 1998


Published in Southeastern Political Review, 26:909-20 (December 1998). Copyright 1998 by Georgia Political Science Association. http://gpsa.mgc.edu/gpsa/ Used by permission.


This analysis marks the first time that the black threat thesis posited in 1949 by V. 0. Key, Jr. has been examined by employing a black versus white head-to-head election. This study tests the black threat thesis in the 1995 Louisiana gubernatorial run-off election. The unit of analysis is the parish (same as county) and the primary data sources used in this analysis include election returns by parish, turnout data by race by parish and demographic and socio-economic variables for parishes taken from the United States Census. The findings are consistent with Key's black threat hypothesis. White support for the racially conservative white candidate is positively and significantly associated with the level of black density.