Demographic Trends and Far-right Party Support in Europe: The Role of the Cordon Sanitaire

Authors

• Maxwell Curry, University of Nebraska-LincolnFollow

First Advisor

Ross Miller

Date of this Version

7-2026

Document Type

Thesis

Citation

A thesis presented to the faculty of the Graduate College at the University of Nebraska in partial fulfillment of requirements for the degree of Master of Arts

Major: Political Science

Under the supervision of Professor Ross Miller

Lincoln, Nebraska, July 2026

Comments

Copyright 2026, Maxwell Curry. Used by permission

Abstract

This study examines whether cordons sanitaires, institutional exclusionary arrangements common in Western and Central Europe on the part of mainstream political actors aimed to prevent far-right political parties perceived as posing a threat to liberal democratic order from entering into governing coalitions or otherwise participating in mainstream political life, condition the relationship between immigration-related demographic change and support for far-right political parties. Contemporary scholarship has extensively examined the relationship between immigration and support for far-right political parties, but comparatively little research has examined the institutional factors that potentially condition such a relationship. In an analysis of parliamentary election data from twelve European countries over a 33-year period, this study examines the potential effects of cordons sanitaires on the relationship between immigration and electoral outcomes for far-right political parties, often subject to exclusionary measures in the form of cordons imposed against them. Utilizing OLS regression models with novel operationalizations of cordon sanitaire strength, I find evidence indicating that the strength of the cordon sanitaire present in a given country conditions the effect of immigration-related demographic change on support for far-right political parties. Results of my analysis indicate that strong cordon arrangements weaken the positive relationship between immigration-related demographic change and support for far-right political parties, whereas this positive relationship is observed to be stronger in countries with weaker or no cordons. This research contributes to contemporary scholarly discourse on the far-right in European politics, inter-party political competition, and institutional responses to demographic change.

Advisor: Ross Miller