Goodbye to Berlin –Where is OA Heading?

Authors

Claudio Aspesi, Bernstein Research

Date of this Version

8-2014

Document Type

Presentation

Citation

Presentation, COASPA Conference 2014

Comments

CC-BY-NC-SA licensed

Abstract

The Facts: Perhaps 10 to 20% of all peer-reviewed articles are published in OA. Almost 10,000 journals listed in the DOAJ.Reed Elsevier and Wiley’s share prices are doing well. Subscription publishing seems in great health.

What is Going On? Full Gold OA is a major threat to the economics of subscription publishers...with significant possible repercussions on the company’s overall performance.

But OA Implementation is Failing: Definition remains vague, probably because objectives are vague. "Europeans are from Mars, Americans are from Venus”. Hybrid model is effectively impossible to monitor. Expectations that OA will address the serial costs crisis are fading away

The Problem If You Are a Librarian...

The Problem If You Are a Tax Payer...

...and If You Are a Publisher? Right now, it looks like most publishers are OK... ...but adding costs to a dysfunctional model may be a recipe for future problems. If funding for science will contract, there will be pressure again on budgets for dissemination (whether this is funding for libraries or for APCs)

Disclosure Appendix – Valuation Methodology & Risks