THE COMMUNITY LEVERAGED UNIFIED ENSEMBLE (CLUE) IN THE 2016 NOAA/HAZARDOUS WEATHER TESTBED SPRING FORECASTING EXPERIMENT

Authors

Adam J. Clark, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms LaboratoryFollow
Israel L. Jirak, NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center
Scott R. Dembek, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
Gerry J. Creager, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
Fanyou Kong, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
Kevin W. Thomas, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
Kent H. Knopfmeier, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory, and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
Burkely T. Gallo, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory
Christopher J. Melick, NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center, and Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies
Ming Xue, University of Oklahoma, and Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
Keith A. Brewster, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
Yongsun Jung, Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms
Aaron Kennedy, University of North Dakota
Xiquan Dong, University of North Dakota
Joshua Markel, University of North Dakota
Matthew Gilmore, University of North Dakota
Glen S. Romine, National Center of Atmospheric Research
Kathryn R. Fossell, National Center of Atmospheric Research
Ryan A. Sobash, National Center of Atmospheric Research
Jacob R. Carley, NOAA/Environmental Modeling Center
Brad S. Ferrier, NOAA/Environmental Modeling Center
Matthew Pyle, NOAA/Environmental Modeling Center
Curtis R. Alexander, NOAA/OAR/Earth System Research Laboratory/Global Systems Division
Steven J. Weiss, NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center
John S. Kain, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory
Louis J. Wicker, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory
Gregory Thompson, National Center of Atmospheric Research
Rebecca D. Adams-Selin, Offutt Air Force Base
David A. Imy, NOAA/OAR/National Severe Storms Laboratory

Date of this Version

2018

Comments

This document is a U.S. government work and is not subject to copyright in the United States.

DOI:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0309.1

Abstract

One primary goal of annual Spring Forecasting Experiments (SFEs), which are coorganized by NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory and Storm Prediction Center and conducted in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Hazardous Weather Testbed, is documenting performance characteristics of experimental, convection-allowing modeling systems (CAMs). Since 2007, the number of CAMs (including CAM ensembles) examined in the SFEs has increased dramatically, peaking at six different CAM ensembles in 2015. Meanwhile, major advances have been made in creating, importing, processing, verifying, and developing tools for analyzing and visualizing these large and complex datasets. However, progress toward identifying optimal CAM ensemble configurations has been inhibited because the different CAM systems have been independently designed, making it difficult to attribute differences in performance characteristics. Thus, for the 2016 SFE, a much more coordinated effort among many collaborators was made by agreeing on a set of model specifications (e.g., model version, grid spacing, domain size, and physics) so that the simulations contributed by each collaborator could be combined to form one large, carefully designed ensemble known as the Community Leveraged Unified Ensemble (CLUE). The 2016 CLUE was composed of 65 members contributed by five research institutions and represents an unprecedented effort to enable an evidence-driven decision process to help guide NOAA’s operational modeling efforts. Eight unique experiments were designed within the CLUE framework to examine issues directly relevant to the design of NOAA’s future operational CAM-based ensembles. This article will highlight the CLUE design and present results from one of the experiments examining the impact of single versus multicore CAM ensemble configurations.