Date of this Version
Economics Letters 117, 2012
This paper examines the inflation ‘‘pass-through’’ problem in American monetary policy, defined as the relationship between changes in the growth rates of individual goods and the subsequent economy-wide rate of growth of consumer prices. Initial relationships are established with Granger causality tests robust to structural breaks. A feed forward artificial neural network (ANN) is used to approximate the functional relationship between selected component subindexes and the headline CPI. Moving beyond the ANN ‘‘black box’’, we illustrate how decision rules can be extracted from the network.