U.S. Department of Agriculture: Agricultural Research Service, Lincoln, Nebraska


Document Type


Date of this Version

November 1992


Published in Journal of Agricultural Science, Cambridge (1992), 119, 1-12.


Simulation models are heuristic tools for integrating diverse processes and help to increase our understanding of complex processes and systems. Models that predict crop development can serve as decision-support tools in crop management. This paper describes a phenology simulation model for the winter wheat shoot apex and reports validation and sensitivity analysis results.

The complete developmental sequence of the winter wheat shoot apex is quantitatively outlined and correlated with commonly recognized phenological growth stages. The phyllochron is used to measure the thermal time between most phenological growth stages, thereby increasing the flexibility over the growing degree-day (GDD) and photothermal approaches. Nineteen site-years covering a range of climatic conditions, cultural practices and cultivars across the Central Great Plains, USA, are used to validate the model.

Validation results show that the predicted phyllochron (108 GDD) agrees well with the observed phyllochron (107 GDD) for ten cultivars. Mean seedling emergence is predicted to within 2 days in almost all of the 19 site-years. The ability of the model to predict growth stages accurately increased successively from jointing to heading to maturity. Maturity is generally predicted to within 5 days of the observed day.

After validation, recalibration of the phyllochron estimates between growth stages are provided, and corrections for mesic and xeric conditions are suggested. Further validation of the entire developmental sequence of the shoot apex is recommended.