U.S. Department of Commerce
Date of this Version
2017
Citation
In: Climate Science Special Report: A Sustained Assessment Activity of the U.S. Global Change Research Program [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA (2017), pp. 540-583.
Abstract
1. The world’s oceans have absorbed about 93% of the excess heat caused by greenhouse gas warming since the mid-20th century, making them warmer and altering global and regional climate feedbacks. Ocean heat content has increased at all depths since the 1960s and surface waters have warmed by about 1.3° ± 0.1°F (0.7° ± 0.08°C) per century globally since 1900 to 2016. Under a high emissions scenario, a global increase in average sea surface temperature of 4.9° ± 1.3°F (2.7° ± 0.7°C) by 2100 is projected, with even higher changes in some U.S. coastal regions. (Very high confidence)
2. The potential slowing of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) (of which the Gulf Stream is one component)—as a result of increasing ocean heat content and freshwater driven buoyancy changes—could have dramatic climate feedbacks as the ocean absorbs less heat and CO2 from the atmosphere. This slowing would also affect the climates of North America and Europe. Any slowing documented to date cannot be directly tied to anthropogenic forcing primarily due to lack of adequate observational data and to challenges in modeling ocean circulation changes. Under a high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) in CMIP5 simulations, it is likely that the AMOC will weaken over the 21st century by 12% to 54%. (Low confidence)
3. The world’s oceans are currently absorbing more than a quarter of the CO2 emitted to the atmosphere annually from human activities, making them more acidic (very high confidence), with potential detrimental impacts to marine ecosystems. In particular, higher-latitude systems typically have a lower buffering capacity against pH change, exhibiting seasonally corrosive conditions sooner than low-latitude systems. Acidification is regionally increasing along U.S. coastal systems as a result of upwelling (for example, in the Pacific Northwest) (high confidence), changes in freshwater inputs (for example, in the Gulf of Maine) (medium confidence), and nutrient input (for example, in urbanized estuaries) (high confidence). The rate of acidification is unparalleled in at least the past 66 million years (medium confidence). Under RCP8.5, the global average surface ocean acidity is projected to increase by 100% to 150% (high confidence).
4. Increasing sea surface temperatures, rising sea levels, and changing patterns of precipitation, winds, nutrients, and ocean circulation are contributing to overall declining oxygen concentrations at intermediate depths in various ocean locations and in many coastal areas. Over the last half century, major oxygen losses have occurred in inland seas, estuaries, and in the coastal and open ocean (high confidence). Ocean oxygen levels are projected to decrease by as much as 3.5% under the RCP8.5 scenario by 2100 relative to preindustrial values (high confidence).
Comments
U.S. government work.