Detection and attribution of climate change

Authors

Thomas Knutson, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LabFollow
James Kossin, NOAA National Centers for Environmental InformationFollow
Carl Mears, Remote Sensing Systems
Judith Perlwitz, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
Michael Wehner, Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryFollow

Date of this Version

2017

Citation

In: Climate Science Special Report: A Sustained Assessment Activity of the U.S. Global Change Research Program [Wuebbles, D.J., D.W. Fahey, K.A. Hibbard, D.J. Dokken, B.C. Stewart, and T.K. Maycock (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA (2017), pp. 160-185.

Comments

U.S. government work.

Abstract

1. The likely range of the human contribution to the global mean temperature increase over the period 1951–2010 is 1.1° to 1.4°F (0.6° to 0.8°C), and the central estimate of the observed warming of 1.2°F (0.65°C) lies within this range (high confidence). This translates to a likely human contribution of 93%–123% of the observed 1951–2010 change. It is extremely likely that more than half of the global mean temperature increase since 1951 was caused by human influence on climate (high confidence). The likely contributions of natural forcing and internal variability to global temperature change over that period are minor (high confidence).

2. The science of event attribution is rapidly advancing through improved understanding of the mechanisms that produce extreme events and the marked progress in development of methods that are used for event attribution (high confidence).