Sensitivity analyses for simulating pesticide impacts on honey bee colonies

Authors

A. Carmen Kuan, Oak Ridge Institute of Science and Education
Gloria DeGrandi-Hoffman, USDA Agricultural Research Service
Robert J. Curry, Crystal River Consulting
Kristina V. Garber, US EPA
Andrew R. Kanarek, US EPA
Marcia N. Snyder, US EPA
Kurt L. Wolfe, US EPA
S. Thomas Purucker, US EPA

Document Type

Article

Date of this Version

3-17-2018

Citation

Ecological Modelling 376 (2018) 15–27. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2018.02.010

Comments

This document is a U.S. government work and is not subject to copyright in the United States.

Abstract

We employ Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the population dynamics of pesticide exposure to a honey bee colony using the VarroaPop+Pesticide model. Simulations are performed of hive population trajectories with and without pesticide exposure to determine the effects of weather, queen strength, foraging activity, colony resources, and Varroa populations on colony growth and survival. The daily resolution of the model allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. Simulations indicate queen strength and forager lifespan are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics in both the control and exposed conditions. Adult contact toxicity, application rate and nectar load become critical parameters for colony dynamics within exposed simulations. Daily sensitivity analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs.