Formal Scenario Development For Environmental Impact Assessment Studies.

Authors

Y. Liu, NOAA National Weather Service
M. Mahmoud, University of Arizona
H. Hartmann, University of Arizona
S. Stewart, University of Arizona
T. Wagener, Pennsylvania State University
D. Semmens, US EPA Office of Research and Development
R. Stewart, University of Tennessee
H. Gupta, The University of Arizona
D. Dominguez, Institute of Environmental Engineering
D. Hulse, University of Oregon
R. Letcher, The Australian National University
B. Rashleigh, US Environmental Protection Agency
C. Smith, Oregon State University
R. Street, UKCIP-OUCE, Dyson Perrins Building
J. Ticehurst, The Australian National University
M. Twer, Northern Research Station program for USDA Forest Service
H. van Delden, Research Institute for Knowledge Systems
D. White, US EPA

Date of this Version

2008

Comments

Published in ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING, SOFTWARE AND DECISION SUPPORT: STATE OF THE ART AND NEW PERSPECTIVES, edited by A. J. Jakeman, A. A. Voinov, A. E. Rizzoli, & S. H. Chen (Amsterdam et al.: Elsevier, 2008).

Abstract

Scenario analysis is the process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states (scenarios). The definition by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) best represents scenarios considered in the natural sciences:

"A scenario is a coherent) internally consistent and plausible description of a possible future state of the world. It is not a forecast; rather, each scenario is one alternative image ~fhow the future can unfold."(http://ipcc-ddc.cru. uea.ac.uk/ ddc_definitions. htnll)