Simulating Probabilistic Long-Term Effects in Models with Temporal Dependence

Authors

• Christopher Gandrud, Harvard University & Zalando SE
• Laron K. Williams, University of Missouri

Date of this Version

12-2017

Document Type

Article

Citation

The R Journal (December 2017) 9(2); Editor: Roger Bivand

Comments

Copyright 2017, The R Foundation. Open access material. License: CC BY 4.0

Abstract

The R package pltesim calculates and depicts probabilistic long-term effects in binary models with temporal dependence variables. The package performs two tasks. First, it calculates the change in the probability of the event occurring given a change in a theoretical variable. Second, it calculates the rolling difference in the future probability of the event for two scenarios: one where the event occurred at a given time and one where the event does not occur. The package is consistent with the recent movement to depict meaningful and easy-to-interpret quantities of interest with the requisite measures of uncertainty. It is the first to make it easy for researchers to interpret short- and long-term effects of explanatory variables in binary autoregressive models, which can have important implications for the correct interpretation of these models.